Five things that should worry American Pharoah fans in Triple Crown bid

ELMONT, N.Y. — Trainer Bob Baffert was planning a nice dinner in Manhattan the night before Saturday's Belmont Stakes, trying to take advantage of the last few moments before nerves set in and thoughts turn for several hours to the 2 1/2 minutes that could make history.

"We're still enjoying it," Baffert said. "I really got the full New York flavor. That's part of the fun. I'm really enjoying this trip because everything has gone so smoothly. But the anxiety starts to build up the closer we get."

Though American Pharoah is not the kind of horse that typically makes his connections nervous, it is natural in the horse racing business to start thinking of everything that can go wrong in a horse race. The list is practically endless.

And while the last few weeks have been all hosannas thrown at the feet of American Pharoah, the reality is that several things could derail his bid to become the first horse since 1978 to win the Triple Crown.

"The last five weeks have been surreal," owner Ahmed Zayat said. "(Saturday) might be a day we all remember."

Maybe for the wrong reasons, though.

Here are the the top five things that should worry American Pharoah's connections and those hoping to see history Saturday:

The break: Even though it is a long trip around Belmont Park's 1 1/2-mile oval, theoretically giving horses plenty of time to recover from a bad start, history shows it is critical to get out of the gate cleanly. Last year, California Chrome did not break sharply and ended up getting stepped on by another horse, which likely compromised his chances. American Pharoah has natural speed and will likely want to run on or near the lead. If he does not break well, he could have to use energy prematurely to catch up. A bad break also brings other traffic scenarios into play where he could get caught in between horses and have to check or go wide around the first turn and lose ground. "This track is deep, it can be a little loose and a lot of horses, we've seen them in the past lose their footing leaving there for a step or two," Baffert said. "It takes them awhile to get going. Everything has to go perfect."

Breeding: The thing about the Belmont and the 1 1/2-mile distance is that bloodlines become far more of a factor than in any other Triple Crown race. Horses can either get the distance or they can't, and much of it has to do with genetics. Though American Pharoah has stamina on his father's side — his grandsire Empire Maker won the 2003 Belmont — his mother's family is not filled with distance runners. That doesn't mean American Pharoah isn't bred to go 1 1/2 miles. We just don't know which side of the bloodlines will be most influential in this circumstance. "There's nothing different we could have done," Baffert said with regard to preparing him to run this distance.

Jockey error: Victor Espinoza has twice ridden horses that had a chance for the Triple Crown. Though neither California Chrome nor War Emblem (2002) lost because of a bad ride, those learning experiences should in theory benefit American Pharoah. Because Belmont is a 1 1/2-mile oval — in contrast to most tracks, which are a mile around — jockeys who don't regularly ride here often get over-eager around the far turn. At most tracks, riders want to get their horses in position heading into the far turn, at around the 3/8 pole. At Belmont, though, the 3/8 pole isn't until halfway around the turn, and with so much on the line it's tempting to go for the lead too soon.

Pace duel: The biggest misconception about the Belmont is that the long distance favors horses who like to come from off the pace. The truth is that after 1 1/2 miles, everyone is tired. Often, it's better to be tired controlling the race from the front than tired and trying to come from behind. The way this Belmont sets up, American Pharoah should be first or second in the early going with Materiality the most likely challenger. The key will be how fast they run the first half-mile. If Materiality, who didn't run in the Preakness, wants to set fast early fractions, Espinoza will have to decide whether to get his horse involved in a speed duel and risk having a tired horse in the stretch. At the same time, it may be difficult to catch a quality horse like Materiality on an uncontested lead. If American Pharoah is close to the lead and the first half mile is run somewhere around 49 seconds, he should be in good shape. If it's faster than that, things could get dicey.

Other horses: Back in the spring, racing observers said this crop of 3-year old colts could be among the deepest in recent memory. Based on the prep races, there seemed to be several horses capable of winning at least one leg of the Triple Crown. With all the attention on American Pharoah, however, people have largely forgotten about the competition — which may be a mistake. Materiality is lightly raced with just four starts, but he was impressive in the Florida Derby and didn't run poorly in his sixth-place finish at the Kentucky Derby. Frosted, meanwhile, was a fast-closing fourth in Louisville. Both horses skipped the Preakness and come into this race fresh, and both have the quality and breeding to get the distance. That doesn't bother Zayat, however. "People keep asking me are you mad about facing fresh horses?" he said. "No, i'm a competitor. (American Pharoah) has to earn it."