Kentucky Derby expert picks: Who are top 5 contenders for 2026 race?

Editor's note: Follow coverage of the 2026 Kentucky Derby throughout the day.

The horse that sired three of the past six Kentucky Derby champions, and two of the leading favorites for the 2026 race at Churchill Downs, never even competed in the first leg of horse racing's Triple Crown.

Into Mischief developed an abscess in his foot in the lead-up to the 2008 Kentucky Derby and finished his career with three wins in six races, but no major victories on his ledger. That's not the case with his offspring, and USA TODAY Network horse racing expert Jason Frakes is picking the two horses with Into Mischief's pedigree as his top two contenders at the 2026 Kentucky Derby.

Renegade is the Arkansas Derby winner and Kentucky Derby favorite. Commandment isn't far behind in the current morning-line odds after reeling off four-straight wins, including the Florida Derby. Can one of those horses make it two years in a row, and four wins in the past seven Kentucky Derby, for Into Mischief's bloodline?

Here's more on the top contenders for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, according to USA TODAY Network's horse racing expert:

Kentucky Derby 2026 top 5 picks, rankings

Here's a breakdown of the top 5 horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby field, according to USA TODAY Sports Network horse racing expert Jason Frakes. Odds as of noon ET on Friday, May 1, according to KentuckyDerby.com

1. Commandment

• Odds: 7-1
• Owner: Wathnan Racing (Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani)
• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Jockey: Luis Saez
• Sire: Into Mischief
• Career earnings: $1,017,339
• Last race: Won Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park.

2. Renegade

• Odds: 5-1
• Owners: Robert and Lawana Low; Repole Stable (Mike Repole)
• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
• Sire: Into Mischief
• Career earnings: $1,031,500
• Last race: Won Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on March 28 at Oaklawn Park

3. The Puma

• Odds: 8-1
• Owners: OGMA Investments LLC (Gustavo Delgado); JR Ranch (Ramiro Restrepo); High Step Racing LLC (Randy Guy, Joe Noble, Kevin Avera, Jim Ferreira, Todd Perry)
• Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
• Jockey: Javier Castellano
• Sire: Essential Quality
• Career earnings: $442,280
• Last race: Second in Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park

4. Further Ado

• Odds: 7-1
• Owner: Spendthrift Farm (Eric Gustavson)
• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Jockey: John Velazquez
• Sire: Gun Runner
• Career earnings: $1,146,328
• Last race: Won Grade 1 Blue Grass on April 4 at Keeneland

5. Emerging Market

• Odds: 11-1
• Owner: Klaravich Stables (Seth Klarman)
• Trainer: Chad Brown
• Jockey: Flavien Prat
• Sire: Candy Ride
• Career earnings: $618,880
• Last race: Won Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 21 at Fair Grounds

–Louisville Courier Journal contributed to this story