By the numbers: Fewer Derby horses are coming back for the Preakness

Much hullabaloo has been made about Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo skipping the Preakness Stakes.

There have been opinion pieces calling for the sport to make it more feasible to run both races. And trainer Chad Brown told the Associated Press that horses “benefit from more time in between races,” while fellow trainer Brad Cox said even moving the Preakness back one week may not be enough for top three-year-olds coming out of the Derby.

It’s the fifth time in eight years that the Kentucky Derby winner has skipped the second jewel of horse racing’s Triple Crown. In 2019, Country House didn’t run the Preakness, followed by Mandaloun in 2021, Rich Strike in 2022 and Sovereignty in 2025.

There hasn’t been a Triple Crown winner since Justify in 2018.

However, it’s not just the winners skipping out on the Preakness. According to a USA TODAY analysis of Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes data, more horses in general aren’t running both races.

Between 1970 and 2018, 50.9 percent of the overall Preakness field also ran in the Kentucky Derby. Since 2019, the average is just 29.6 percent, a 21.3 percentage-point drop.

And this year, if the announced Preakness field runs on May 16, just 21.4 percent of the horses in Maryland will have run at Churchill Downs on May 2. That’ll be just the third time since 1970 that less than a quarter of the Preakness field also ran in the Derby.

Before 2019, the only year below 25 percent was 2008, when 16.7 percent of the Preakness was made up of Derby-running horses. Big Brown’s dominant Derby win appeared to scare off many would-be rematch opponents that year. The lowest share since 1970 was in 2023, when just one of the seven (or 14.3 percent) that ran the Preakness also ran the Derby.

In recent years, owners and trainers have been withholding their horses because of the traditionally short two-week turnaround between the Preakness and the Kentucky Derby. Golden Tempo’s trainer, Cherie DeVaux, specifically called out the horse’s “health, happiness, and long-term future” as why he’ll be absent from the Preakness this year.

There has been recent talk about shifting the Triple Crown schedule. The Kentucky Derby’s parent company, Churchill Downs Inc., entered into an agreement to acquire the intellectual property rights to the Preakness in April, a move that could ultimately affect the races’ timelines.

Methodology note: Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes starters from 1970 through 2025 extracted via official reports from the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. 2026 data from articles by the Louisville Courier Journal. Only horses that started the Kentucky Derby, Preakness or both were counted, except for the 2026 Preakness, which has not yet been run. The 2026 Preakness data is based on the starter’s list published on May 11.