6 Kentucky Derby horses to bet on if it rains during Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs
Brooks Holton- There's a chance of rain Saturday at Churchill Downs, where the 151st Kentucky Derby champion will be crowned.
- Which horses have experience racing in less-than-ideal conditions? Here's a breakdown.
Twenty-five years ago, the hip-hop duo Outkast graced the world with one of its biggest hits, "Ms. Jackson." In it, André 3000 has a line that always crosses this reporter's mind once or twice this time of year, during the buildup to the Kentucky Derby.
"You can plan a pretty picnic," he says, "but you can't predict the weather."
AccuWeather.com's forecast has shifted significantly for the first Saturday in May, which now calls for clouds giving way to some sun with a couple of showers — a 71% chance of precipitation, to be exact.
It begs the questions: Which horses in the Derby 151 field have raced in the rain? How about on muddy and/or sloppy tracks?
Per Equibase.com, the answer is at least six. Weather-specific data for two, Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe, was not available.
If you're sent scrambling for a poncho at Churchill Downs and need help adjusting your Derby bets, here are the contenders who have experience in the rain and its aftermath — presented in order of their numbers in the program, accompanied by their morning-line odds:
Neoequos (No. 2, 30-1)
- Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
- Jockey: Luis Saez
Neoequos, an also-eligible entrant who placed third in the Florida Derby, has a complicated history on sloppy tracks. In his first start, which came in the rain last July at Gulfstream Park, the son of Neolithic did not finish; he got bumped hard by an inside foe at the start and lost his rider. Flash forward to Jan. 23: He reaches the winner's circle for the second time of his career with a 3 ½-length victory in an allowance race in similar conditions at the same track.
Final Gambit (No. 3, 30-1)
- Trainer:Brad Cox
- Jockey:Luan Machado
Final Gambit needed three tries to break his maiden, doing so in rainy conditions Feb. 15 on a fast, all-weather track at Turfway Park. The Derby will be his first start on dirt, but assistant trainer Tessa Walden was confident in the son of Not This Time's ability to make the switch after his victory in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks; saying: "He's got the maturity now to handle something different."
American Promise (No. 5, 30-1)
- Trainer:D. Wayne Lukas
- Jockey: Nik Juarez
American Promise, a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, won a Dec. 29 maiden special weight in the mud at Oaklawn. The Virginia Derby champion has raced in the rain only one other time across his nine career starts: a Sept. 27 maiden special weight on a sloppy track at Churchill, where he finished eighth.
Flying Mohawk (No. 11, 30-1)
- Trainer:Whit Beckman
- Jockey: Joe Ramos
Two of Flying Mohawk's first three starts came in showery conditions, but the Derby will be his first race on dirt. The also-eligible entrant finished second, by a length, in the first: a Sept. 1 maiden special weight on a firm turf track at Kentucky Downs. Twenty-seven days later, he finished fifth in the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes on a yielding outer turf at Aqueduct.
Publisher (No. 13, 20-1)
- Trainer:Steve Asmussen
- Jockey:Irad Ortiz Jr.
Publisher is in line to be only the 13th maiden to run in the Derby since 1937. The son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah has finished on the board in five of his seven career starts — twice in less-than-ideal conditions last year: the aforementioned Sept. 27 maiden special weight on a sloppy track at Churchill (third) and the aforementioned Dec. 29 maiden special weight on a muddy track at Oaklawn (second).
Coal Battle (No. 16, 30-1)
- Trainer:Lonnie Briley
- Jockey: Juan Vargas
Coal Battle, Briley's first graded-stakes winner across more than three decades of training, broke his maiden last July on a sloppy track at Evangeline. In November, he and Vargas began a four-start unbeaten streak with a 2 ½-length victory in a 6 ½-furlong race in the mud at Delta Downs.
Reach Louisville men's basketball reporter Brooks Holton at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter at @brooksHolton.