Which Kentucky Derby horse will win Run for the Roses? A case for each
Jason Frakes- Arkansas Derby winner Renegade is the 4-1 morning-line favorite for the Kentucky Derby.
- Commandment, Further Ado and Chief Wallabee are other leading contenders in the morning line.
- In a field viewed by trainer Todd Pletcher as "highly competitive," here's why each horse can — and can't — win the Run for the Roses.
The term “wide-open” can be overused when analyzing the Kentucky Derby on a yearly basis, but it seems to apply in 2026.
There’s little separation among the four favorites in the morning line – Renegade (4-1), Commandment (6-1), Further Ado (6-1) and Chief Wallabee (8-1) – and several of the longer shots (see: So Happy and Emerging Market) need to take just minor steps forward to be major contenders.
Renegade trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Kentucky Derby twice and sees the 152nd running as highly competitive.
“I think it’s an interesting field,” Pletcher said. “I think the Florida horses (Commandment, Further Ado, The Puma) are very strong. I thought it was a pretty strong series of races at Gulfstream this year. You have an international blend as well. It’s like always, a hard race to win.”
With that in mind, The Courier Journal offers its annual breakdown of why each horse can and can’t win the Kentucky Derby — many serious, a few tongue-in-cheek, one destined to be right.
Click on a horse’s name to learn more:
1. Renegade
Why he can win: The morning-line favorite has an impressive late kick (that Arkansas Derby!), the top jockey in the United States (Irad Ortiz Jr.) and a trainer who’s won this race twice (Todd Pletcher).
Why he can’t: It’s been 40 years (Ferdinand in 1986) since a horse won the Kentucky Derby from the No. 1 post. Despite his career success, Ortiz never has finished in the money in nine Derby rides.
2. Albus
Why he can win: He’s 2 for 2 this year and has shown the ability to win with different styles. Trainer Riley Mott surely learned some Derby tips from his father, Bill, who has won this race twice.
Why he can’t: The Wood Memorial has not been a good prep race for the Derby this century. The last Wood winner to win the Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000.
Buy tickets here for Kentucky Derby 1523. Intrepido
Why he can win: There’s no doubt he has some speed, as seen in Sunday’s bullet workout of four furlongs in 45 seconds. Perhaps he has the stamina to steal it.
Why he can’t: Trainer Jeff Mullins after Sunday’s work: “I wasn’t very happy about it. It’s not a good sign ever for my horse.” Take heed.
4. Litmus Test
Why he can win: Has enough speed to be up front early, which always is dangerous when talking about a Bob Baffert trainee. His sire, Nyquist, won the Derby in 2016.
Why he can’t: His two races this year – including a seventh-place finish in the Arkansas Derby – have been nowhere near as good as those when he was a 2-year-old. Regressing?
5. Right to Party (scratched)
Right to Party was scratched from the Kentucky Derby field May 1. Click here to read more.
6. Commandment
Why he can win: He’s the most consistent horse in the field with four straight wins and two straight Beyer Speed Figures of at least 100. Broke his maiden at Churchill Downs last November.
Why he can’t: May not be the best horse in his own barn (See: Further Ado).
7. Danon Bourbon
Why he can win: He’s unbeaten in three career starts, so he certainly knows how. Law of averages says Japan has to win the Derby at some point, right?
Why he can’t: Fair or not, horses from Japan will continue to be compared to Forever Young (third in 2024 Derby). Danon Bourbon doesn’t appear to be in the same league.
8. So Happy
Why he can win: From first-time Derby trainer Mark Glatt to 59-year-old jockey Mike Smith to 94-year-old breeder Leverett Miller, there’s a lot to root for here. The “Derby Gods” may shine bright on this one.
Why he can’t: California racing is on the decline, and the Santa Anita Derby hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby winner since Justify in 2018.
9. The Puma (scratched)
The Puma was scratched from the Kentucky Derby field May 2. Click here to read more.
10. Wonder Dean
Why he can win: His UAE Derby was impressive, tracking Six Speed and then blowing past him in the stretch for a 2½-length victory.
Why he can’t: Horses from the UAE Derby are 0 for 21 in the Kentucky Derby since 2000. Forever Young (third in 2024) was the only one to finish in the money.
11. Incredibolt
Why he can win: Horse for the course? He’s the only one in the field to win twice at Churchill Downs, both coming as a 2-year-old.
Why he can’t: His Virginia Derby victory came March 14, meaning he will have had seven weeks off since his last race. Since 1929, Authentic is the only horse to win the Kentucky Derby off a seven-week layoff, and that came during the COVID-affected September Derby.
12. Chief Wallabee
Why he can win: His Beyer Speed Figures have been impressive since his debut victory in January at Gulfstream Park, and the way he finished in the Florida Derby provides plenty of reason to believe.
Why he can’t: The “wise-guy” horse never wins, and Chief Wallabee seems to be the one in 2026. Adding blinkers for the Derby historically hasn’t been a winning angle.
13. Silent Tactic (scratched)
Silent Tactic was scratched from the Kentucky Derby field April 29. Click here to read more.
14. Potente
Why he can win: He’s the most expensive horse in the field ($2.4 million) and has a sire (Into Mischief) who has produced three Derby winners. Trainer Bob Baffert has won this race six times.
Why he can’t: Had no excuse in the Santa Anita Derby and finished 2¾ lengths behind So Happy. Lot of questions about his desire to go 1¼ miles.
15. Emerging Market
Why he can win: Trainer Chad Brown isn’t one to chase Kentucky Derby glory, so it says a lot that he’s entering a horse who has just two races (both wins) under his belt. Perhaps Emerging Market is a freak?
Why he can’t: Only one horse ever has won the Kentucky Derby after entering the race with just two career starts, and you have to go back to 1883 (Leonatus) to find him.
16. Pavlovian
Why he can win: His 10 career starts lead the field, and he was just a nose behind highly-regarded Emerging Market in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Doug O’Neill has won this race twice.
Why he can’t: Speed figures show he’s just not fast enough to compete with the best in this field.
17. Six Speed
Why he can win: Figures to be near the front early. If Brian Hernandez Jr. can get him to relax, who knows?
Why he can’t: If he couldn't relax on the lead in the UAE Derby, how's he going to do it in front of 150,000 fans?
18. Further Ado
Why he can win: The 11-length win in the Blue Grass produced the best Beyer Speed Figure (106) of any horse in the field. Picks up a jockey in John Velazquez who has won this race three times.
Why he can’t: By far his two most impressive races have come at Keeneland, where he has two victories by a combined 31 lengths. Just how good is he outside of Lexington as a 3-year-old?
19. Golden Tempo
Why he can win: His speed figures have improved with every race, and he was a strong third in the Louisiana Derby. Cherie DeVaux is one of the nation’s top up-and-coming trainers.
Why he can’t: Never raced outside of Louisiana, and there are other closers in this race with more talent.
20. Fulleffort (scratched)
Fulleffort was scratched from the Kentucky Derby field April 30. Click here to read more.
21. Great White
Why he can win: Massive horse (17.2 hands) may just scare away all of the others if he draws in.
Why he can’t: Twenty-two lengths behind Further Ado while finishing fifth in the Blue Grass. No thanks.
22. Ocelli
Why he can win: LOL.
Why he can’t: He’s never won a race in his career, and no maiden has won the Derby since Brokers Tip in 1933.
23. Robusta
Why he can win: Showed some ability two back in the San Felipe, losing by a head to Potente. Trainer Doug O’Neill has won this race twice, so there’s no reason for him to throw an overmatched horse out there.
Why he can’t: Couldn’t handle the hot pace in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing seventh, and figures to encounter the same here.
Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; [email protected]. Follow on X @KentuckyDerbyCJ.
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