Kentucky Derby predictions: AI picks winner, results for 2026 race

The post position draw did not go as planned for the 2026 Kentucky Derby favorite. Renegade will start in the No. 1 post along the rail when the 152nd Run for the Roses is held at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 2. Trainer Todd Pletcher told reporters he "reached for the airsickness bag" when he got the news while on a plane headed to Louisville.

There hasn't been a Kentucky Derby winner from that post position since Ferdinand in 1986, and the latest picks and analysis to emerge from these developments appear to also be influencing how artificial intelligence believes this year's Kentucky Derby will go.

USA TODAY Sports asked Microsoft Copilot's AI chatbot to produce a simulation of the 2026 Kentucky Derby field with full results, including the winner of this year's first Triple Crown race. It was told to use the latest odds and conditions, as well as analysis of favorites, underdogs, best bets and picks now that post positions for all 20 horses are set.

The AI chatbot did not choose Renegade to finish in the top three, despite the horse remaining the Kentucky Derby entry with the best odds as of Monday, April 27.

Here's a breakdown of the Kentucky Derby predictions made by Microsoft Copilot AI, including its picks to win, show and place when the 2026 Triple Crown commences at Churchill Downs on Saturday:

2026 Kentucky Derby predictions: AI picks winner, results of Triple Crown race

Odds as of 10 a.m. ET on Monday, April 27, according to KentuckyDerby.com

1. Further Ado (6-1): "Elite late pace, dominant Blue Grass Stakes win; winning post (18) historically viable"
2. Commandment (6-1): "Most consistent form in field (Florida Derby winner) ... Post 6 historically weak, but outweighed by class and trip"
3. Emerging Market (15-1): "Best value play; rapid upward development, ideal running style"
4. Renegade (4-1): "Arkansas Derby winner; rail post (1) historically brutal (last win 1986)"
5. Chief Wallabee (8-1): "Grinding late runner perfect for superfectas"
6. The Puma (10-1): "Early pace contributor fades late but hangs for a check"
7. So Happy (15-1): Mid‑pack speed, high Derby experience jockey, distance concerns
8. Potente (20-1): "(Bob) Baffert factor matters, but traffic and stamina limit upside"
9. Silent Tactic (20-1): "Consistent grinder but lacks elite turn of foot"
10. Wonder Dean (30-1): "Favorable post (10) historically, but step up in class proves steep"
11. Incredibolt (20-1): "Mild mid‑race move, but traffic and distance expose stamina ceiling"
12. Danon Bourbon (20-1): "Competitive early, fades second turn"
13. Golden Tempo (30-1): "Outside post (19) limits tactical options"
14. Pavlovian (30-1): "Beneficial post (16), but class gap evident"
15. Fulleffort (20-1): "Historical precedent helps outsiders, but lacks closing punch"
16. Albus (30-1): Inside trip problematic; brief mid‑race advance, then retreat
17. Right to Party (30-1): "Strong historical post (5), but raw speed not sufficient"
18. Intrepido (50-1): "Overmatched at Grade 1 level"
19. Six Speed (50-1): "No historical winners from post 17; eliminated by trip and pace pressure"
20. Litmus Test (30-1): "Early trouble ... effectively out of contention after first turn"

When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby?

The 152nd Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs is set for Saturday, May 2, 2026. The Kentucky Derby will be broadcast on NBC. Streaming options will be available on Peacock.

• Date: Saturday, May 3, 2025
• Coverage starts: 2:30 p.m. ET
• Post Time: 6:57 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC
• Stream: Peacock
• Location: Churchill Downs (Louisville, Kentucky)