Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

The Seattle Mariners (21-22) and the Houston Astros (16-27) play the third of a 4-game series Wednesday at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze MLB odds around the Mariners vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

2026 season series: Mariners lead 6-0

Seattle pounded Houston 10-2 in the second installment of this series Tuesday, cashing as a heavy favorite (-200) behind RHP Bryan Woo (6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K), with the Over (8.5) cashing. LF Randy Arozarena had a giant game, finishing 4 for 4 with 2 doubles, a home run, 3 RBIs and 4 runs scored, while DH Dominic Canzone had a grand slam and 5 RBIs in the rout.

For the Astros, SS Braden Shewmake went 2 for 4 with an RBI, as perhaps the brightest offensive performance for Houston, as he upped his average to .357.

The Mariners have won 4 of their past 6 games and are 5-2 in their past 7 road contests -- and 8-3 in their previous 11. The Under is 3-1 in Seattle's past 4 games and 7-3 across the past 10 contests.

Mariners RHP Bryce Miller is set to return from the injured list to make his first start of the season after suffering an oblique injury in spring training.

The Astros have struggled mightily on offense, scoring just 4 runs in their current 4-game losing streak. The Under is 3-1 in the span.

Mariners at Astros projected starters

RHP Bryce Miller vs. RHP Lance McCullers Jr.

Miller (4-6, 5.68 ERA in 2025) made 18 starts last season. He had a 1.41 WHIP with 3.4 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 90 1/3 innings.

• 2025 road splits (9 starts): 2-3, 5.56 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 7 HR, 17 BB, 33 K
• Last start vs. Astros (Sept. 23, 2024): Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 6-1 road victory
• Career vs. Astros (6 starts): 4-1, 2.55 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 4 HR, 8 BB, 25 K, 0.88 WHIP, 6.4 K/9

McCullers Jr. (2-3, 7.41 ERA) will make his eighth start of 2026. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 34 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 2 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 4 H (1 HR), 3 BB, 4 K, 3 wild pitches in 12-2 home setback vs. LA Dodgers last Wednesday
• 2026 home splits (4 starts): 1-3, 7.32 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 4 HR, 11 BB, 20 K
• Last start vs. Mariners (April 11, 2026): No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 8-7 road loss
• Career vs. Mariners (21 starts): 10-3, 3.46 ERA (114 1/3 IP, 44 ER), 11 HR, 50 BB, 133 K, 1.23 WHIP, 10.5 K/9

Mariners at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:15 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mariners -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Astros +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+125) | Astros +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -118 | U: -102)

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Mariners at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 7, Astros 4

Moneyline

The MARINERS (-135) are a solid play behind Miller, who will be making his season debut. There is some risk here, and it's uncertain if Miller will have any restrictions. However, even if he doesn't go long and has some rust, he can't be worse than McCullers, who has been terrible this season.

Seattle has won 9 in a row in the series, including all 6 meetings this season, and it's hard to see McCullers being the one to stop the slide against a division rival.

Run line/Against the spread

BACKING MARINERS -1.5 (+125) is worthy of a play, as they've won each of the last 4 meetings by 2 or more runs, outscoring the Astros 25-6 in that span. If you like Seattle to win, you should like it to cover the run line, too.

The Mariners have outscored the Astros 59-26 in their current winning streak against them, with 8 of those wins by 2+ runs.

Over/Under

OVER 9 (-118) is a strong play with Miller making his season debut, while McCullers has been horrific. The Over has cashed in 3 of the past 4 meetings between these teams in Houston since Sept. 20, 2025.

In addition, OVER 5 (-110) - FIRST 5 INNINGS is worth consideration, too, due to the potential of plenty of early runs.

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