Detroit Tigers at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

The Detroit Tigers (19-24) and New York Mets (17-25) meet Thursday for the finale of a 3-game series in New York, New York. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Mets and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 2-0

The Mets pulled off a dramatic win Wednesday night, beating the Tigers 3-2 in extra innings as -116 home favorites with the Under (8) cashing. RF Carson Benge delivered the heroics with his third hit of the night, a walk-off single in the 10th inning. SS Bo Bichette and LF Tyrone Taylor also drove in runs for New York, which now looks for its first sweep of the season Thursday.

LF Riley Greene did everything he could Wednesday night for the Tigers, going 3 for 5 with both RBIs in the loss. The bigger issue was Detroit’s inability to cash in chances, finishing just 1 for 9 with runners in scoring position and leaving 11 men on base. SP Framber Valdez (6 2/3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K) pitched well enough for a win. but settled for a no-decision. The Tigers have now dropped 7 of their last 8 games.

Tigers at Mets projected starters

RHP Keider Montero vs. RHP Nolan McLean

Montero (2-2, 3.18 ERA) makes his eighth career start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 39 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K (71 pitches) in 4-3 loss at Kansas City Royals Friday
• Has never pitched against the Mets
• 2026 road splits: 0-0, 3.27 ERA (11 IP, 4 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 2 starts

McLean (1-2, 2.78 ERA) makes his ninth start. He has a 0.90 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 45 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K (100 pitches) in 3-1 loss at Arizona Diamondbacks Friday
• Only start vs. Tigers: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K (90 pitches) in 12-5 road victory Sept. 5, 2025
• 2026 home splits: 0-2, 3.13 ERA (23 IP, 8 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 in 4 starts

Tigers at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Tigers +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mets -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-155) | Mets -1.5 (+130)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -118)

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Tigers at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Tigers 2

Moneyline

PASS. I like the Mets (-175) to win comfortably, which is why I'll take my bet to the run line.

Run line/Against the spread

BET METS -1.5 (+130).

The Mets are finally starting to look like the team many expected coming into the season, and Thursday feels like a good spot for them to finish off a sweep against the Tigers. The Mets have already taken the first 2 games at Citi Field and have outscored Detroit 13-4 in the series.

The biggest turnaround has been the pitching. New York owns a solid 3.46 ERA over the last 15 days, and McLean has been much better than his 1-2 record shows. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in any of his 8 starts this season, but the run support just hasn’t always been there for him.

Detroit continues to struggle badly away from home with a 7-18 road record, and the Tigers have now lost 4 of 5 on this road trip. Right now, the Mets are simply playing the better baseball..

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-118).

The Under keeps looking like the play when the Mets and Tigers meet up. The Mets have cashed the Under in 8 of their last 10 games, while Detroit has gone Under in 4 of its last 6. Add in recent Under trends for both McLean and Montero, and this feels like another low-scoring game Thursday.

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