The NBA draft lottery is almost here. Here are the odds for each team
Bryan KalbroskyWith the 2026 NBA draft lottery on the horizon, 14 teams will gather in Chicago to hear if they will get the No. 1 overall pick in this class.
Pick Nos. 15-60 are already finalized but the lottery order is yet to be determined. With such a top-heavy class, there are plenty of reasons for fans to get excited even if their favorite team is not called at No. 1 overall.
This year has notable prospects including AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson and Caleb Wilson. So even a top-four pick could change a franchise.
While the future of how the NBA draft lottery will work is currently undetermined based on concerns about tanking, the odds for this year are set in stone. Here is what you need to know, including trade details, for each team picking in the lottery.
1. Washington Wizards
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 14.0%
Odds to land top-4 pick: 52.1%
Most likely draft range: No. 3–5
Worst-case drop: No. 7
Even with the best odds in the lottery, Washington is still more likely to pick No. 5 (47.9%) than anywhere in the top four.
2. Indiana Pacers
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 14.0%
Odds to land top-4 pick: 52.1%
Most likely draft range: No. 4-6
Worst-case drop: No. 6
This pick is traded to the Clippers if it falls at No. 5 (27.8%) or No. 6 (20.1%), giving the Pacers a 47.9% chance of losing it.
3. Brooklyn Nets
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 14.0%
Odds to land top-4 pick: 52.1%
Most likely draft range: No. 4-6
Worst-case drop: No. 7
The Nets have better-than-even odds at a top-four pick (52.1%) but their most likely individual outcome (26.0%) is still No. 6 overall.
4. Utah Jazz
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 11.5%
Odds to land top-4 pick: 45.1%
Most likely draft range: No. 5-7
Worst-case drop: No. 8
Utah has a 45.1% chance to land a top-four pick but its most likely outcome (27.1%) is No. 6 overall.
5. Sacramento Kings
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 11.5%
Odds to land top-4 pick: 45.1%
Most likely draft range: No. 5-8
Worst-case drop: No. 9
Sacramento’s odds are solid for a top-four pick but the most likely outcome (25.5%) is No. 7 overall.
6. Memphis Grizzlies
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 9.0%
Odds to land top-4 pick: 37.2%
Most likely draft range: No. 6-8
Worst-case drop: No. 10
Memphis cannot land at No. 5 or anywhere from No. 11 through No. 14.
7. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans Pelicans)
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 6.8%
Odds to land top-4 pick: 29.3%
Most likely draft range: No. 7-9
Worst-case drop: No. 11
This pick was traded to the Hawks from the Pelicans in the 2025 NBA Draft. It cannot land at No. 5 or No. 6. If it lands worse than Milwaukee’s pick, the Hawks will swap for the Bucks’ selection instead.
8. Dallas Mavericks
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 6.7%
Odds to land top-4 pick: 28.9%
Most likely draft range: No. 8-10
Worst-case drop: No. 12
Dallas cannot land at No. 5, No. 6 or No. 7 overall.
9. Chicago Bulls
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 4.5%
Odds to land top-4 pick: 20.2%
Most likely draft range: No. 9-11
Worst-case drop: No. 13
Chicago cannot land at No. 5 through No. 8 and has a nearly zero chance of falling to No. 12 through No. 14.
10. Milwaukee Bucks
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 3.9%
Odds to land top-4 pick: 13.9%
Most likely draft range: No. 10-12
Worst-case drop: No. 14
If the Bucks have a better pick than the Pelicans, which would only happen if Milwaukee jumps into the top four or New Orleans slides to No. 10, the pick is traded to the Hawks. Milwaukee would then receive the Pelicans’ selection. There is an 11.8% chance of that happening. Milwaukee cannot land at No. 5 through No. 8. and holds a nearly 0% chance at No. 13 or No. 14.
11. Golden State Warriors
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 2.0%
Odds to land top-4 pick: 9.4%
Most likely draft range: No. 11-13
Worst-case drop: No. 14
Golden State cannot land at No. 5 through No. 10 with less than 1.0% chance at No. 13 or No. 14.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Los Angeles Clippers)
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 1.5%
Odds to land top-4 pick: 7.2%
Most likely draft range: No. 12-14
Worst-case drop: No. 14
Oklahoma City cannot land at No. 5 through No. 11 with a nearly 0% chance at No. 14.
13. Miami Heat
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 1.0%
Odds to land top-4 pick: 4.7%
Most likely draft range: No. 12-14
Worst-case drop: No. 14
Miami cannot land at No. 5 through No. 12.
14. Charlotte Hornets
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 0.5%
Odds to land top-4 pick: 2.4%
Most likely draft range: No. 12-14
Worst-case drop: No. 14
Charlotte cannot land No. 5 through No. 13. with a 97.6% chance at No. 14, the highest probability of any single outcome in the lottery.
When is the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery?
The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery is Sunday, May 10, 2026, at 3 p.m. ET on ABC in Chicago at McCormick Place.