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NCAA TOURNAMENT
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

March Madness bracketology: Wednesday was a rough day for a really bad bubble

March 11, 2026Updated March 12, 2026, 10:09 a.m. ET

Click here for Thursday's live USA TODAY Bracketology.

Wednesday was a busy, finger-nail biting day for men's basketball teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble. And for the most part, it was a rough day for the bubble.

Indiana, California, SMU, West Virginia, Cincinnati and Texas all lost at their respective tournaments.

That's the reality of the bubble. Flawed teams. And they all showed it.

Indiana can kiss its March Madness hopes goodbye. The Hoosiers were bullied once again by Northwestern in Wednesday's second round of the Big Ten tournament. IU needed a win to keep its NCAA hopes alive. Instead, the 15th-seeded Wildcats picked up its seventh consecutive win over the Hoosiers, all but assuring Indiana misses the NCAA field for the eighth time in the past 10 years.

Cincinnati saw a late lead slip away against Central Florida in Wednesday's Big 12 tournament second round and lose in overtime. The Bearcats needed that one to have any hope of making the field.

Texas, which had possibly felt comfortable, lost to an Ole Miss team that was 12-19 in the regular season. California lost to Florida State, which could maybe enter the bubble talk with a few more wins. Who knows?

SMU's loss against Louisville in the first round of the ACC tournament Wednesday will leave the Mustangs a little uneasy on Selection Sunday.

If West Virginia was hoping to impress the selection committee this week, a 20-point loss to BYU in the Big 12 tournament Wednesday night certainly didn't help.

On the bright side, North Carolina State avoided a potential banana peel in Wednesday's ACC second round, beating Pittsburgh.

A lot has been made about Auburn's case. The Tigers had to beat Mississippi State in the first round of SEC tournament play Wednesday. They got the job done to improve to 17-15 but still need another win or two or they can kiss their at-large hopes goodbye no matter how many times Bruce Pearl says otherwise.

Oklahoma's win over South Carolina in the SEC tournament doesn't get the Sooners in yet, but unlike their bubble counterparts, they still have a chance to impress.

Virginia Tech and Stanford's first-round losses in the ACC tournament Tuesday pretty much removes them from bubble consideration.

Fourteen teams have already punched their tournament tickets in Long Island (NEC), Queens (Atlantic Sun), High Point (Big South), Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), Tennessee State (OVC), Furman (SoCon), North Dakota State (Summit League), Troy (Sun Belt), Gonzaga (WCC), Siena (MAAC), Wright State (Horizon), Hofstra (CAA), McNeese State (Southland) and Idaho (Big Sky).

March Madness bracket update: 2 a.m., March 12

Last updated: 2 a.m., Thursday, March 12

* bold means automatic berth clinched.

  1. Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Florida
  2. Connecticut, Houston, Illinois, Michigan State
  3. Iowa State, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Gonzaga
  4. Purdue, Alabama, Virginia, Kansas
  5. Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Wisconsin
  6. North Carolina, St. John's, Louisville, Brigham Young
  7. Kentucky, Miami (Fla.), Utah State, Saint Mary's
  8. Villanova, Iowa, Saint Louis, Georgia
  9. Clemson, TCU, UCLA, North Carolina State
  10. Central Florida, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Missouri
  11. Texas, Miami (Ohio), SMU/Virginia Commonwealth, Santa Clara/Auburn
  12. Northern Iowa, Yale, South Florida, McNeese State
  13. Hofstra, Utah Valley, High Point, Sam Houston State
  14. UC Irvine, North Dakota State, Wright State, Troy
  15. Tennessee State, Siena, Furman, Idaho
  16. Queens (N.C.), Long Island, Maryland-Baltimore County/Florida A&M, Howard/Lehigh

March Madness last four in

  • Santa Clara
  • Virginia Commonwealth
  • SMU
  • Auburn

March Madness first four out

  • New Mexico
  • Oklahoma
  • Indiana
  • West Virginia

March Madness next four out

  • Virginia Tech
  • Cincinnati
  • San Diego State
  • Stephen F. Austin

NCAA Tournament bids conference breakdown

Multi-bid leagues: SEC (11), Big Ten (9), ACC (8), Big 12 (8), Big East (3), West Coast (3), Atlantic 10 (2), Mountain West (2).

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