NFL Week 11 predictions by Microsoft Copilot AI for every game

Microsoft Copilot AI got off to a shaky start with its NFL picks in Week 10, but it finished the 14-game slate strong.

Copilot posted a 10-4 record overall and impressively picked all four stand-alone games and the entire late-afternoon Sunday slate correctly. The lone window with which the chatbot had trouble was the eight-game early Sunday slate, where it went a modest 4-4 overall.

Copilot's success continues as the chatbot continues to back favorites across matchups. Will that trend continue into Week 11? USA TODAY Sports will once again experiment with using the AI chatbot to predict the results of every NFL game.

The process of collecting Copilot's picks was simple. The AI chatbot was prompted to pick a winner and provide a score for each of the NFL's 15 Week 11 matchups. The query used to generate the results was as follows:

• Can you predict the winner and the score of the New England Patriots vs. New York Jets NFL Week 11 game?

The prompt was then repeated across all of the NFL's Week 11 matchups, with new teams swapped in for each additional query.

Typically, Copilot can interpret the prompt without issue. However, the chatbot will occasionally provide outdated or incorrect information, especially regarding injuries across the NFL. This was not a major surprise, as some Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle to keep up with the latest sports news and updates.

When errors occurred, Copilot was simply prompted to reassess and correct these mistakes.

Below is a summation of Copilot's picks for Week 11, along with a brief, human-crafted analysis of each of the chatbot's answers.

NFL Week 11 picks: AI predicts scores for every game

• Copilot's Week 10 results: 10-4
• Copilot's 2025 season record: 97-51-1

New England Patriots 31, New York Jets 13

AI's take: Copilot isn't optimistic about the Jets following their win. The chatbot questioned whether the Jets offense will be able to do much with Breece Hall facing an "elite" Patriots run defense and Garrett Wilson set to miss the game with a knee injury. It also likes the "explosive" playmaking abilities of Drake Maye and TreVeyon Henderson to allow the Patriots to extend their winning streak to eight games.

Our take: The Patriots have allowed a league-low 79.2 rushing yards per game this season while Justin Fields has thrown for 54 yards or less in three of his last four games. New England is the right pick.

Miami Dolphins 23, Washington Commanders 13

AI's take: Copilot referred to Washington's offense as "gutted" by injuries, noting the absences of Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin would loom large in this contest. It also called the Commanders defense "decimated" and expects that to benefit Tua Tagovailoa's "efficient but conservative" playing style.

Our take: Tell us how you really feel, Copilot! But yes, the chatbot is right to be concerned about the state of Washington's roster right now. The Commanders will have a lot of trouble containing Jaylen Waddle with Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos sidelined, and De'Von Achane could have a big day on the ground with Daron Payne suspended for Sunday's game.

Atlanta Falcons 20, Carolina Panthers 16

AI's take: Bijan Robinson is in for a big game against the Panthers, in Copilot's opinion. Meanwhile, the chatbot thinks that Carolina's "sputtering" offense has a tough matchup against the Falcons and wasn't confident Bryce Young could do enough through the air to help the Panthers win "a grind-it-out game."

Our take: It's easy to understand Copilot's concerns about the Panthers, given they just lost 17-7 to the Saints. Still, the Falcons are on a four-game losing streak and haven't performed consistently. That makes this a true coin-flip game, despite Atlanta's talent edge.

Buffalo Bills 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

AI's take: Copilot doesn't have much faith that Tampa Bay's "declining" run defense will be able to contain James Cook after struggling to stop TreVeyon Henderson in Week 10. The chatbot also isn't sure the Buccaneers' "depleted" offense will be able to match the production of Josh Allen and the Bills, despite its appreciation for Baker Mayfield's skill set.

Our take: The Buccaneers are missing some key offensive playmakers in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving, but Mayfield and Co. have still found a way to move the ball consistently. As such, this game could be closer than Copilot anticipates, though the Bills should still hold a slight edge hosting the warm-weather Buccaneers in cold-weather Buffalo.

Houston Texans 23, Tennessee Titans 10

AI's take: Copilot isn't a believer in the Titans' offense, calling Cam Ward and his offensive line "liabilities" against an "aggressive" Texans defense. The chatbot also expressed confidence the Texans could pull off a win even if Davis Mills once again has to start over C.J. Stroud (concussion).

Our take: The Texans rank No. 1 overall in defensive EPA per play this season, per the NFL's Next Gen Stats. It's hard to trust Ward to break out in such a tough matchup.

Chicago Bears 27, Minnesota Vikings 23

AI's take: Copilot isn't yet willing to trust the "inconsistent" J.J. McCarthy and noted his turnover issues are "concerning." It much preferred the "balanced" Bears offense in a closely contested game.

Our take: While the Bears won for the sixth time in seven games in Week 10 against the Giants, Chicago trailed for most of the game. That could put them on upset alert against a Vikings team that has a strong defense.

Green Bay Packers 27, New York Giants 13

AI's take: Copilot noted it will be difficult to project exactly how the Giants perform without knowing who will start at quarterback. Jaxson Dart (concussion) is uncertain for the game, but it isn't clear whether New York would turn to Russell Wilson or Jameis Winston if the rookie has to sit. That said, it believes the Packers defense will "dominate the trenches and force turnovers" either way, giving Green Bay the edge in this one.

Our take: The Packers are fresh off a woeful offensive outing against the Eagles during which they scored just seven points. With that in mind, this projected point total is a bit high. Still, it's hard to recommend picking against Green Bay given the strength of its defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers 30, Cincinnati Bengals 27

AI's take: Copilot isn't willing to back a "historically bad" Bengals defense that ranks last in yards per game allowed this season. It expects a "rebound" performance from Aaron Rodgers after his struggles against the Chargers, so it's giving the Steelers an edge while projecting a shootout.

Our take: The Steelers defense had a lot of trouble slowing down Joe Flacco and Ja'Marr Chase when they last met. That should keep hope for another Cincinnati upset alive, but the Steelers still have the more complete team, even if it has its warts.

Los Angeles Chargers 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 20

AI's take: Copilot likes Justin Herbert's matchup against a "vulnerable" Jaguars secondary and noted its belief that Ladd McConkey is "emerging as a deep threat." It also likes the Los Angeles defense's matchup against an Jaguars offensive line that has "protection issues."

Our take: The Jaguars just allowed the Davis Mills-led Texans to score 26 fourth-quarter points against them in a 36-29 loss. It's hard to trust them against a well-rounded Chargers team, even if the Jaguars are playing at home.

Los Angeles Rams 31, Seattle Seahawks 23

AI's take: Copilot is evidently very confident in the Rams' passing game. It credited Matthew Stafford for playing at an MVP level in 2025 and noted Los Angeles could "dominate" a young Seahawks secondary. The chatbot also expressed concerns about Sam Darnold being under pressure often should the Rams jump out to an early lead.

Our take: Copilot may be undervaluing just how good Seattle's defense has been this season. The Seahawks rank fifth in defensive EPA per play this season and have allowed 22 or fewer points in eight of their nine games this season. Stafford could still have a nice game, but it doesn't figure to be as high-scoring as Copilot is projecting.

San Francisco 49ers 26, Arizona Cardinals 23

AI's take: Copilot believes the 49ers have "more offensive balance" than the Cardinals and should find success whether Mac Jones or Brock Purdy starts. The chatbot expressed an appreciation for the connection Jacoby Brissett and Marvin Harrison Jr. are developing in Arizona, but it is less confident in the team's offensive line and running game.

Our take: The 49ers aren't as tough a matchup for the Cardinals as the Seahawks were, as San Francisco has the lowest pressure rate in the NFL. That should allow Arizona to stay in this one, but the Cardinals are just 2-5 in one-score games this season. That should give the 49ers a slight edge.

Baltimore Ravens 24, Cleveland Browns 13

AI's take: Copilot considers this a mismatch between a Baltimore offense that is "trending up" and a Cleveland offense that is "one of the league’s worst." It believes the Ravens will be able to control the game with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry despite its appreciation for a "strong" Browns defense.

Our take: The Ravens are on a three-game winning streak that has coincided with the team getting healthier. They rattled J.J. McCarthy last week and should find similar success against Dillon Gabriel.

Kansas City Chiefs 24, Denver Broncos 20

AI's take: Who will win the battle between Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix? Copilot is giving Kansas City the edge, highlighting Mahomes' 13-1 record against Denver as a major reason for its pick. It also opined the Broncos offense is "too inconsistent" and believes the absence of Patrick Surtain could loom large against a top-tier Chiefs passing attack.

Our take: Andy Reid has a 22-4 record straight up after a bye during his coaching career. The Broncos had a mini-bye to prepare for this game, but they are still at a disadvantage against one of the NFL's best coaches.

Philadelphia Eagles 30, Detroit Lions 27

AI's take: Count Copilot among those who liked the Jaelan Phillips trade. It noted the Eagles' acquisition of the veteran pass rusher gives the team a better chance to "disrupt" Jared Goff. The chatbot also said Jalen Hurts' "mobility and red-zone efficiency" will give the Eagles an edge in a tightly contested battle.

Our take: Goff has historically performed better indoors than outdoors, so it makes sense to give the Eagles an edge in what could be a cold-weather night game. That said, Philadelphia's offense struggled greatly in Week 10 against the Packers, so trusting the Eagles to win a shootout seems questionable.

Dallas Cowboys 30, Las Vegas Raiders 20

AI's take: Copilot is backing a Cowboys offense it believes is "far superior" to the Raiders'. The chatbot believes the additions of Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson could fortify Dallas' leaky defense and allow the Cowboys to earn a bounce-back victory after their recent loss to the Cardinals.

Our take: Geno Smith has struggled badly this season and his 12 interceptions rank second-most in the NFL behind only Tua Tagovailoa. It's hard to trust the veteran to reverse that trend, even in an easier-looking matchup.