2026 NFL Draft QB rankings: Time to table the Ty Simpson debate?

The 2026 NFL Draft looks unlikely to quench the league-wide thirst for young quarterbacks.

The crop of passing talent in this year's class has shaped up as one of the more lackluster groups in recent years, with only Indiana's Fernando Mendoza – widely projected as the No. 1 overall pick – seemingly on solid ground as a first-rounder. If no one joins him in hearing his name called on opening night, it would mark just the third time since 2000 that only one signal-caller has been selected in Round 1.

Surprises are still possible. The other two classes – 2013 and 2022 – that produced one first-rounder at the position also yielded Geno Smith and Brock Purdy, respectively. But even the pool of developmental prospects looks shallow this year. Ultimately, this year might be defined by the top passers who all opted not to declare early – including Texas' Arch Manning, Oregon's Dante Moore and Texas Tech's Brendan Sorsby, among others.

With that said, here are our rankings for the top quarterback prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft:

1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

It's a testament to Mendoza's impeccable body of work that the pre-draft vivisection of his game has largely only turned up questions of how he'll fare operating from under center rather than in the shotgun.

No one will confuse the 6-5, 236-pound Heisman Trophy winner with the likes of Cam Ward or Drake Maye, as he's not particularly creative or dangerous when a play breaks down. But that's about the only phase in which Mendoza comes up short. He's as precise as any passer you'll find from the college ranks, and he comfortably works through progressions and manipulates coverages. His arm strength isn't otherworldly, but he can attack every level with suitable velocity on his throws. Forcing him off his spot can throw him off his rhythm, but Mendoza rarely loses his cool under pressure and still conjures solutions when things aren't going his way. Beyond the improvisational shortcomings, he's the picture of a top-tier quarterback prospect.

2. Ty Simpson, Alabama

Don't get caught up in the eleventh-hour debate positioning Simpson as legitimate competition for the title of the best passing prospect in this class. At this stage, he seems much closer to being QB3 than he is pushing for QB1.

Fueling the intrigue and skepticism alike on the 6-1, 211-pound signal-caller is his lone season at the helm for the Crimson Tide. The son of longtime Tennessee-Martin coach Jason Simpson quickly exhibited some of the more polished parts of his game, particularly with his clean footwork and comfort picking apart zone coverages. But his performance took a nose dive down the stretch as he dealt with multiple ailments, and he frequently sailed passes too high. Simpson's never-say-die mentality is often his undoing, so playing with a more finely tuned internal clock will be essential to his development. Several of the issues that have plagued him could be corrected in relatively short order, but teams would be justified to approach a passer with just 15 starts with a good deal of apprehension. A leap of faith is required to envision a quarterback with his physical makeup and timing issues blossoming right away, but continued growth at least seems attainable.

3. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Between aggravating an abdominal injury suffered in fall camp and LSU's wider offensive failures, Nussmeier quickly became something of a draft afterthought in the fall. Yet a bit more perspective on what plagued him presents important insight into what value he still has to offer.

The son of New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier doesn't always exhibit a playing style befitting his lineage, as the younger Nussmeier isn't afraid to uncork downfield shots. Though he might not resemble the typical gunslinger at just 6-2 and 203 pounds, Nussmeier leverages his advanced anticipation, rapid release and elastic arm into big gains in the vertical game. That proclivity for big-play hunting can prove problematic when Nussmeier refuses to dial back his aggressiveness. Without a more discerning approach, particularly when throwing over the middle, that tendency could produce heaps of turnovers for a player who doesn't truly drive the ball into tight windows. But if Nussmeier strikes a balance, he has the makeup of a potential starter.

4. Carson Beck, Miami (Fla.)

The sixth-year senior went from the one-time favorite to be the No. 1 pick in 2025 to a reclamation project after his unraveling at Georgia. A solid resurgence at Miami, however, left him somewhere between those two polarities.

When properly protected, Beck confidently picks apart defenses and delivers strikes from the pocket. The 6-5, 233-pounder is particularly adept at attacking the intermediate levels. With rushers barreling down on him, however, Beck becomes an almost entirely different quarterback – one prone to breakdowns in decision-making and ball placement. His arm strength also appears to be notably limited after a 2024 ulnar collateral ligament surgery. Given those limitations, his best launching pad in the NFL might be as a backup for a solid team rather than an early playing-time candidate for a roster with less offensive support.

5. Cole Payton, North Dakota State

Amid a landscape where quarterbacks typically hop to the next opportunity if they're not playing, Payton – who spent four years as a backup at North Dakota State before taking the reins to the offense last year – is a rarity. His uniqueness also extends to his play, as you won't find many 6-3, 232-pound lefties who can rip off long runs or throw deep strikes on the move.

Things won't come as easily to Payton in the pros as they did in his lone year as a starter, when he averaged an astounding 16.9 yards per completion and completed 71.9% of his passes. Though he's thrived under pressure, his limited experience and janky mechanics and leave him without a sufficient handle on the quick passing game. As such, he's a fairly volatile projection who might not even be able to lock down a backup role right away. But in a class short on quarterbacks with starting-caliber traits, he's an intriguing mid-round prospect for a team that deploys a heavy dose of run-pass options.

6. Drew Allar, Penn State

For much of his college career, the focus on Allar rested on what he might become. As a former five-star recruit who stood 6-5 and 228 pounds with an easy ability to push the ball downfield, he boasted enough tools to stir speculation that he could be a top-five draft pick. But after Allard decided to return to school last year, the disparity between his play and his potential only grew in an erratic six-game stretch in the fall. An October surgery on his broken left ankle ended any hopes that he might deliver the progress so many had expected for so long.

Allar is the kind of player who should expand what an offense is capable of, but Penn State too often opted to work around his shortcomings. A proper pro introduction might entail a similar extended timeline, as his knack for making tight-window throws will be rendered moot without a solution for his tendency to fail to hit receivers in stride. Learning to take the easy wins will be essential, as will keeping the ball out of harm's way when things get dicey in the face of pressure.

7. Taylen Green, Arkansas

Make whatever comparison you'd like: Matt Jones, Terrelle Pryor or an even more explosive (and less reliable) Anthony Richardson. No matter the parallel, Green established at the NFL scouting combine that he offers a truly unmatched blend of athleticism and size (6-6, 237 pounds). It's only natural, then, that teams would gravitate toward a passer with access to every level of the field and who can create on his own.

But subsisting on big plays didn't prove tenable for Green in the Southeastern Conference, and any chance he earns behind center in the NFL might be short-lived without better consistency. His lackadaisical setups in the pocket and elongated release negate much of the advantage conferred by his substantial arm strength, and his ball placement tends to be rather wild. Despite his build and speed, Green too often succumbs to pressure in the pocket or is unable to connect downfield after breaking structure. Though he's resisted a move to receiver like Pryor, his most prosperous professional path might entail a position switch.

8. Cade Klubnik, Clemson

Last summer's speculation that Klubnik could be a contender for the No. 1 overall pick always seemed off-base, but a tumultuous final season underscored that he's not in the first or second tier of quarterbacks in this class.

The former five-star recruit shows occasional streaks of his promise when he's able to find a groove with his timing and work defenses over the middle. When working past his initial read, however, things tend to break down for Klubnik. That's a particular problem for a player who seems to have trouble handling complex looks. And though he has the mobility to evade the rush, he won't create many opportunities for himself out of structure.

9. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor

At 6-4 and 216 pounds with sufficient arm strength and enough mobility to keep defenses honest, Robertson looks the part of a top quarterback prospect. But he's largely unreliable with his ball placement, a problem that's exacerbated by his lack of tempo and decisiveness. Robertson probably requires a good deal of mechanical clean-up work before he can factor into a team's long-term plans.

10. Luke Altmyer, Illinois

From his 6-2, 210-pound build to his subpar arm strength and overall athleticism, Altmyer doesn't clear the bar in several respects for what teams seek behind center. But while his developmental upside is limited, there's a path for him to stick around as a backup. Teams should be attracted to his touch and timing, as well as his overall savvy approach to the position, though he'll have to demonstrate he can avoid sacks at the next level with a quicker trigger.