Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres odds, picks and predictions

The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres clash Thursday in Game 5 of their second-round Eastern Conference playoff series. Puck drop at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York, is slated for 7 p.m. ET (TNT / truTV / HBO Max). Let's analyze NHL odds around the Canadiens vs. Sabres odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Series: Tied 2-2

Montreal led this series 2-1 after clobbering the Sabres by a combined tally of 11-3 in Games 2 and 3, but on Tuesday the -146 Canadiens were defeated 3-2 (Under 6) in a contest they led heading into the second period.

Buffalo won Game 4 despite being outshot 30-22. The Sabres have been outshot by a significant margin in 3 of the 4 games in this set. An offense that averaged 3.73 goals per game (GPG) in March and April regular-season games has averaged just 3.00 GPG in these playoffs.

Canadiens at Sabres odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:12 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Canadiens +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Sabres -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
• Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Canadiens +1.5 (-250) | Sabres -1.5 (+198)
• Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: -130 | U: +106)

Canadiens at Sabres projected goalies

Jakub Dobes (2026 playoffs: 6-5, 2.22 GAA, .914 SV%) vs. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (2026 playoffs: 2-1, 3.37 GAA, .871 SV%)

Dobes, who logged a .901 SV% in the regular season, allowed 3 goals on 22 shots in Tuesday's game. He has posted an .895 SV% for the series.

Luukkonen started Game 4 after not having played since Game 2 of Buffalo's first-round series vs. the Boston Bruins. He stopped 29 of 31 shots in what likely marked his best outing since mid-March. G Alex Lyon had been the Sabres go-to netminder in Games 1-3, but Lyon was touched up for 9 goals over Games 2 and 3.

Canadiens at Sabres picks and predictions

Prediction

Sabres 4, Canadiens 3

Moneyline

Aside from netting 11 total goals across Games 2 and 3 of this series, the Montreal even-strength offense has logged some underwhelming metrics since late in its first-round series vs. the Tampa Bay Lightning. For the playoffs as a whole, the Habs definitely profile as a too-far-over-their-skis group when it comes to goals for and against compared to expected in 5-on-5 play. A 4-for-20 (20% power play) has helped, but can Montreal count on extra-man tallies against a Buffalo club that in the regular season ranked fourth in killing penalties (81.9%)?

In the playoffs, the Sabres have been one of the NHL's best when it comes to manufacturing scoring chances and high-danger looks in even-strength play. Buffalo has its power play in gear (5 for 16, 31.3% for the series), and Montreal has been an oft-penalized team in these postseason games.

BACK THE SABRES (-120).

Puck line/Against the spread

No interest; PASS.

Over/Under

The Under hit Tuesday for the first time in this series (after 2 Overs and a push).

Expected-vs.-actual 5-on-5 metrics are bearish on the Habs defense. So much so that its factor dominating an Over lean. Mixing in expectations for special teams and the fact that both clubs have been finding their way to the odd 4-plus night in recent weeks makes the lean all the stronger.

TAKE THE OVER 5.5 (-130).

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