Why USA will be watching Bosnia vs. Qatar closely today

After winning both of its opening games, the U.S. men's national team has already clinched first place in Group D at the World Cup.

The USMNT still has one final group match on Thursday, June 25 against Turkey, but arguably the more consequential match for its World Cup journey will take place the day before in Seattle.

Bosnia and Herzegovina will face Qatar at Lumen Field on Wednesday and if there is a winner, they are almost certain to be the USMNT's Round of 32 opponent.

Both teams enter the match on one point after drawing their Group B opener, then losing their second match.

With Canada and Switzerland each on four points, finishing in the top two is unlikely for both Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar. Instead their most likely path to the round of 32 is to finish among the top eight third-place teams.

The match between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar could be a fun one for the neutrals, because a tie would almost certainly eliminate both sides. Two points probably won't be enough to qualify among the top third-place teams. But four points almost certainly would be enough, and that would put the winner on a collision course with the USMNT.

Who will USMNT play in World Cup Round of 32?

The USMNT already knows when and where it will be playing in the Round of 32.

As the first-place finisher in Group D, the USMNT will play at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California on July 1.

Its opponent will be the third-place finisher from one of the following groups: B, E, F, I, or J.

Prior to the tournament, FIFA listed 495 possible combinations for round of 32 matchups. Based on how the group stage has played out thus far, Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar would almost certainly be the opponent if there is a winner.

Per The Athletic's bracket simulator, Bosnia and Herzegovina is by far the USMNT's most likely last-32 opponent, with a 58% chance prior to the Qatar match. Qatar is next at 18%.

The next highest team is Senegal, which is at 9%. No other team is above 4%.