Now is the time to book summer flights, as uncertainty could raise prices

• Travel experts recommend booking summer flights now for the best prices.
• The ideal window for booking domestic summer travel is three to seven months in advance.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are causing jet fuel prices to rise, which could impact airfare.

If you're planning to fly somewhere this summer, now's the time to book your tickets.

"We're right across what we call the Goldilocks Window at Going for when to buy summer flights," Katy Nastro, a travel expert at airfare deals website Going, told USA TODAY in an email. "The best odds of finding a deal for domestic travel are about 3-7 months out, with 3 months being the latest you’d want to wait. The same goes for international summer trips, but with a slightly wider window of roughly 4-10 months ahead for the optimal sweet spot."

The war in Iran is adding uncertainty to summer travel, however. Reuters reported that jet fuel prices have risen 15% since the start of the war, and that could mean higher ticket prices for those who wait to book.

Direct flights from Seoul to London on March 11 with Korean Air Lines, for example, leapt to $4,359, up from $564 seven days earlier, according to Google Flights data.

Fuel is the second-largest expense for air carriers after labor, typically accounting for a fifth to a quarter of operating expenses.

Still, Nastro said, it's an open question how much of an effect the war will have on airfares overall, even if it means higher fuel prices.

"Airline CEOs, like United's Scott Kirby, are warning of higher fares due to oil price spikes, but just because oil prices rise doesn't mean fares will necessarily follow suit," she said, adding that demand often does more to dictate airline ticket prices than fuel costs.

"We probably will see less people wanting to travel long-haul this year if geopolitical tensions are still high, which means demand can soften. Sure, higher oil prices raise airlines’ costs, but if travelers aren’t willing − or wanting − to pay more, airlines can’t push fares too high without risking empty seats," Nastro said.

It's not just leisure travelers. Lorraine Tan, director of equity research, Asia at an investment analysis company, told Reuters, "Some companies start to limit business travel due to the uncertain outlook."

A prolonged and broadening military campaign in the Middle East could create major financial and operational difficulties for airlines.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank warned about the possible effects in a recent report.

"Absent near-term relief, airlines around the world could be forced to ground 1,000s of aircraft while some of the industry's financially weakest carriers could halt operations," the report said. Since Feb. 28, when the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran started, through March 8, more than 37,000 flights to and from the Middle East have been cancelled, according to data from Cirium.

Other analysts say that if prices continue to rise for a long period of time, it will inevitably lead to higher ticket prices.

"I'm pretty convinced the airlines are ​going to ... look to pass through the costs ⁠to end consumers (only if needed in the event of sustained fuel inflation) instead," Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker told Reuters.

Nastro said she hasn't seen any signs that airlines are planning to reduce capacity yet, but added that for passengers, now is still the best time to book summer travel, even amid all the geopolitical uncertainty.

"The best piece of advice for people worried about summer prices is to look and book now," she said. "Airfare is uncertain, but what we do know, regardless of what's going on around us, is that now is an optimal window for better prices."

Contributing: Reuters

Zach Wichter is a travel reporter and writes the Cruising Altitude column for USA TODAY. He is based in New York, and you can reach him at [email protected].