Cape Cod, Islands most likely MA counties to get hit by hurricane in 2026. Report.
Will Cape Cod, Nantucket or Martha's Vineyard see a hurricane in 2026?
Meteorologists from Colorado State University have released their first forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, including predictions about the likelihood of one impacting individual Massachusetts counties.
Nantucket County had the highest chance of being hit by a hurricane, per the report - but the chance was only 7%. Nantucket was followed by Barnstable County at 6% and Dukes County (Martha's Vineyard) at 5%, which was tied with Plymouth County. The remaining Massachusetts counties fell below these percentages.
Overall, CSU researchers predict a below-average hurricane season. According to the forecast, 13 named tropical storms could form this year, of which six could become hurricanes. A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, with roughly seven of them ramping up into hurricanes, based on weather records from 1991 to 2020.
The forecast includes a state-by-state look at the predicted hurricane risk. Those calculations center around the chances of a storm passing within 50 miles of the state.
Will Massachusetts be impacted by a tropical storm or hurricane? Here's what to know about the risk in 2026, according to the new forecast.
What is a hurricane? Tropical storm?
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds of 74 mph or greater, according to the National Weather Service. A tropical storm is a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 39 to 73 mph.
Will a hurricane impact Massachusetts in 2026?
Massachusetts has a 24% chance of being impacted by a tropical storm and a 10% chance of being impacted by a hurricane in 2026, according to CSU.
Which MA counties face the highest chance?
According to CSU predictions, these Massachusetts counties face the highest chance of being impacted by a tropical storm or hurricane in 2026:
- Barnstable: 12% tropical storm chance, 6% hurricane chance
- Dukes: 14% tropical storm chance, 5% hurricane chance
- Essex: 10% tropical storm chance, 3% hurricane chance
- Nantucket: 14% tropical storm chance, 7% hurricane chance
- Norfolk: 11% tropical storm chance, 3% hurricane chance
- Plymouth: 11% tropical storm chance, 5% hurricane chance
- Suffolk: 10% tropical storm chance, 3% hurricane chance
Which state has the highest hurricane risk this year?
Per usual, Florida faces the highest risk, with a 74% chance of being impacted by a tropical storm and a 43% chance of being impacted by a hurricane.
When is the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Hurricane season officially begins June 1. The six-month season lasts until Nov. 30.
Will a major hurricane make landfall in the US in 2026?
Colorado State researchers said there's a 32% chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline in 2026. The average, based on records from 1880 to 2020, is 43%.
The chances of a landfall are greater along the Gulf Coast (20%) than they are along the East Coast (15%).
What do other forecasters say?
In a forecast released in March, meteorologists at AccuWeather predicted 11 to 16 named tropical storms would develop in the Atlantic basin in 2026, of which four to seven would become hurricanes. AccuWeather also said there would be three to five direct U.S. impacts from hurricanes.
Federal scientists from NOAA will release their forecast in May.
Dinah Voyles Pulver of USA TODAY contributed to this report.