5 simple tips to pick your NCAA tournament bracket for March Madness

Filling out a March Madness bracket can be an intimidating task but fear not — we've got data on our side. When trying to build a winning Men's NCAA Tournament bracket many people fall into this pattern: Pick a bunch of favorites, pick a few upsets and cross your fingers.

Regardless of how much research you do, your odds of picking all 63 games — not including the four play-in games — correctly are impossibly large. Perhaps that's why we'll give you $1 million to do it.

We'll give you a few trends based on 39 years of history (1985-2024) since the tournament grew to 64 teams. Our tips will get you started, but you'll still need to make a few guesses — educated or not — along the way.

Printable 2026 NCAA March Madness bracket

Below is a different way to look at the traditional NCAA Tournament bracket. The first round comes down to four sets of these eight pairings. These 2,496 squares below represent all the teams — not counting the play-in teams — that have competed in the tournament from 1985 through 2024.

1a. NCAA Tournament first-round winners are usually the top seeds

Unable to view our graphics? Click here to see them.

If you just pick the highest-seeded team throughout the tournament, your odds improve significantly – especially through the first few rounds. That makes the No. 1 and 2 seeds especially good bets in almost every tournament.

The NCAA has hosted its own online bracket contest during the past 10 tournaments. They've found that players get two-thirds of their picks right when they based their picks on "likely outcomes." That method improves your odds of a perfect bracket to 1 in 120.2 billion. 

That's 70 million times better than coin flipping, but likely outcomes probably won't be enough to win among your friends and co-workers.

1b. Lowest-seeded teams might not be a good bet to upset

The 15th- and 16th-seeded teams have won a combined 13 times in from 1985-2024, or once every three years. The last time a 15 and 16 seed won was in 2023 when No. 15 Princeton's and No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson both secured victories so perhaps this year we are due.

Perhaps we're either seeing the start of a new trend, or, more likely, you can feel relatively confident picking all the No. 1 and 2 seeds. If you do want to take a flier (which you'll need to do to win), maybe try a few seeds up. On average, a 13 seed knocks off a 4 seed about once per tournament.

Which seeds have the best records in the round of 32

Not unsurprisingly, 47% or more of the 4 seeds or higher make it through to the Sweet 16. What might be surprising: If a 10, 11 and 12 seed wins their first-round game, they have a 40% chance of moving on to the Sweet 16.

3. How many upsets you should pick in you NCAA Tournament bracket

The guessing game begins here in Step 3 where you'll likely differentiate your bracket from everyone one else's.

On average between 1985 and 2024, there've been 8.5 upsets per tournament, or just about 13% of the 63 games, according to the NCAA. That said, some years are bound to break brackets. Both 2021 and 2022 had 14 total upsets.

The NCAA's upset numbers don't include the 8 vs. 9 games. That's probably the best time to consider flipping a coin to make your picks. That said, the 9 seeds currently have a six-game edge on the 8s, so that might argue for a majority of 8-seed winners this year.

Upset rates for the first four rounds of the NCAA Tournament

While the 39-year average is just over eight upsets per year, upsets have become a bit more commonplace. In nine of the past 13 years, lower seeds have won at least 10 games, according to the NCAA. There were 10 upsets in 2023 and nine in 2024.

4. Picking the Final Four gets more challenging

While last year's tournament resulted in all No. 1 seeds making it to the Final Four, this result is rare. With the exception of last year and 2019, at least one No. 7 seed or lower has made in the Final Four dating back to 2011.

5. A No. 1 seed is still the best choice for the tournament champion

While the data suggests you shouldn't have four No. 1s in your Final Four, they have piled up more than two dozen championships in nearly four decades, including 10 of the past 12 tournaments. Since 2005, a No. 1 seed has won at least every other year.

Schools that have won the NCAA men's tournament

What's the longest a bracket has ever stayed perfect?

According to the NCAA, an Ohio man correctly predicted the entire 2019 men's NCAA tournament into the Sweet 16, which set the record for the longest verified March Madness bracket win streak at 49 games. (The NCAA began tracking brackets from major online platforms, including their Men and Women's Bracket Challenge Game, ESPN, CBS and Yahoo, since 2016.) Read more about perfect March Madness brackets here.

Note: This story was originally published in 2024 by Jim Sergent.