Who’s winning the 2026 midterms? Latest polls on House and Senate

The biggest question driving the 2026 midterm elections right now is simple: Who will win control of Congress? Control of the House and Senate will determine what Congress can pass — or block — through the rest of President Donald Trump’s term, making this election one of the highest-stakes midterms in years.

A fresh wave of June polling shows Democrats maintaining momentum on the generic congressional ballot, while early primary results are beginning to clarify key matchups that could decide control of the House and Senate this fall.

Primary elections held last Tuesday, June 2 in New Jersey, California, Iowa, Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota helped lock in several high-profile general election matchups, including New Jersey, Republican Justin Murphy who will challenge Democratic incumbent Sen. Cory Booker in November after winning a crowded GOP primary.

Down-ballot races are also sharpening the midterm battlefield, particularly in competitive House districts across suburban and swing regions that both parties view as critical to flipping control.

Republicans currently control the White House and both chambers of Congress, though with relatively slim margins in the House. Democrats would need a net gain of just a handful of seats to flip either chamber — keeping both the House and Senate firmly in play heading into November.

All 435 House seats and roughly one-third of Senate seats will be contested in the midterm elections on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. The GOP also hold a majority of governorships and a conservative Supreme Court.

Democratic leaders continue to frame the map as expansive, targeting dozens of competitive districts nationwide as part of an aggressive push to reclaim the House majority.

Midterm elections, held halfway through a president’s term, often serve as a referendum on the party in power. Lower turnout can amplify the impact of voter enthusiasm and engagement.

Here's what to know about the 2026 midterm election odds and predictions and a full list of primary dates by state.

When are the midterms? 2026 Midterm elections

The midterm elections are Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026.

Who will control Congress in 2026? Generic Congressional vote

According to Real Clear Polling, all 14 pollsters, including this week's survey results from Reuters/Ipsos, Economist/YouGov, and RMG Research show Democrats currently leading the midterm race in the generic Congressional voting polls, 48% said they'd vote Democrat and 41.9% said they'd vote Republican. This is a 6.1-point divide that has grown this past year as the odds in favor of Democrats over Republicans continue to edge higher.

However it is not so clear cut as the Economist/YouGov poll finds:

• 33% say they would vote for Republicans in their district
• 37% say they would vote for Democrats in their district
• 31% said other, not sure or would not vote

The 31% of uncertainty has grown in recent weeks. It can make all the difference in the Election Day outcome in November midterms.

Who's winning the 2026 midterms? Midterm Election predictions, odds

In the Polymarket betting odds on who will win the 2026 midterms, 37% favor a balance of power with a Republican win for the Senate and Democratic win for the House. Currently, the Republican party controls both the Senate and the House.

• 82% favor a Democratic Party win for the House in midterms 2026
• 55% favor a Republican Party win for the Senate in midterms 2026
• 45% favor a Democratic sweep of the House and Senate in midterms 2026
• 18% favor a Republican sweep of the House and Senate in midterms 2026

The Kalshi market predictions on midterm election wins favor a Democratic sweep by 42% over a split congress with 36% odds.

• 79% favor a Democratic Party win for the House in midterms 2026
• 56% favor a Republican Party win for the Senate in the midterms 2026

Note: Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers reflect polling and odds as of 12:30 p.m., Tuesday, June 9, 2026.

When is my primary election date? 2026 Primary election dates by state

Primary elections are on different dates for most states, starting March 3 and running through Sept. 15. Here are the primary elections dates by state:

• Alabama May 19
• Alaska August 18
• Arizona July 21
• Arkansas March 3
• California June 2
• Colorado June 30
• Connecticut August 11
• Delaware September 15
• District of Columbia June 16
• Florida August 18
• Georgia May 19
• Guam August 1
• Hawaii August 8
• Idaho May 19
• Illinois March 17
• Indiana May 5
• Iowa June 2
• Kansas August 4
• Kentucky May 19
• Louisiana May 16
• Maine June 9
• Maryland June 23
• Massachusetts September 1
• Michigan August 4
• Minnesota August 11
• Mississippi March 10
• Missouri August 4
• Montana June 2
• Nebraska May 12
• Nevada June 9
• New Hampshire September 8
• New Jersey June 2
• New Mexico June 2
• New York June 23
• North Carolina March 3
• North Dakota June 9
• Ohio May 5
• Oklahoma June 16
• Oregon May 19
• Pennsylvania May 19
• Rhode Island September 8
• South Carolina June 9
• South Dakota June 2
• Tennessee August 6
• Texas March 3
• Utah June 23
• Vermont August 11
• Virgin Islands August 1
• Virginia August 4
• Washington August 4
• West Virginia May 12
• Wisconsin August 11
• Wyoming August 18

Maria Francis is a Pennsylvania-based journalist covering trending and breaking topics across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions for USA Today Network. Reach her at [email protected].