The power players who might pick the next California governor

• Endorsements from political powers are virtually nil in the crowded California gubernatorial primary race.
• Recent polls show a tight race between Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra.
• Many likely voters remain undecided ahead of the June 2 primary election.
• The California Democratic Party chair is still urging low-polling candidates to drop out to avoid splitting the vote.

With time running out for the final contenders in the high-stakes California gubernatorial race, backing from four political power brokers could make all the difference.

All the mudslinging debates and the millions of dollars spent on attack ads might not matter for the six – yes, six – Democratic candidates still vying to be the top official in this bellwether blue state. 

As ballots arrive in the mail and the final debate airs on May 14, some seasoned political analysts think the Democratic primary candidate might be determined not by quick polls, union endorsements, or social media influencer posts, but by which gets the old-school backing of certain political heavyweights. 

These endorsements still matter in California, experts say, as they provide cues for voters, especially for those still undecided. Those big backers include House Speaker emerita Nancy Pelosi, possibly former Vice President Kamala Harris, and, in case of an emergency, Gov. Gavin Newsom. 

"If there’s ever a time for the Democrats to bring out some of these big names in American politics, it’s now," said Brian Sobel, a veteran political analyst in the San Francisco Bay Area. "It remains such a crowded race."

For projected Democratic frontrunners, including former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and former Rep. Katie Porter, a key endorsement before California's nonpartisan, or "jungle," primary election could catapult them over their rivals. These big Dems' backing could clear the fog in a voting environment in which, according to a recent CBS News/YouGov poll, more than a quarter of likely voters remain undecided.

Polls conducted by the California Democratic Party showed the two leading Republican candidates, former Fox News contributor Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, were leading the field until this month. A May 4 poll has Hilton and the surging Becerra tied at 18%.

Other polls, including a SurveyUSA poll released earlier in May, show Hilton, who has President Donald Trump's endorsement, edging out Becerra and fellow Democrat, billionaire entrepreneur and climate activist Tom Steyer. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the general election.

Taken together, the polling suggests a Democratic electorate still searching for a candidate to support.

A pair of power brokers, beyond the big three, have already weighed in. Former San Francisco Mayor and longtime California State Assembly speaker Willie Brown endorsed Steyer, who has spent more than $130 million on his campaign. And, although she's not local, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, endorsed Porter, her protege in the U.S. House of Representatives and her former student at Harvard Law School.

“I would hope for the party's sake that it will start a trend," said Caroline Heldman, a politics and gender studies professor at Occidental College in Los Angeles, political commentator, and coauthor of the book, "Rethinking Madame President: Are We Ready for a Woman in the White House?" "Otherwise, I think Kamala Harris should have been in this race to rebuild her political capital, because having so many candidates has been the bane of this primary."

However, Harris, who has teased a possible third presidential run, recently released a slate of statewide endorsements. Noticeably missing, given the still-congested race, was her choice for governor.

"She deliberately left out who she wanted," said David McCuan, a veteran political science professor at Sonoma State University. "I think she missed a hell of an opportunity."

Pelosi, who played a critical role in convincing President Joe Biden to step down and Harris to step up in the 2024 presidential contest, hasn’t revealed her coveted choices on any state races. 

Heldman believes an endorsement from Harris or Pelosi could tip the scales.

"Either one of them can help clear the field," Heldman said.

And Newsom, who recently shared his pick for lieutenant governor, has opted to remain mum on a successor to lead the nation’s most populous state. Newsom explained during a May 8 news conference that this choice is strategic.

"It’s my intention not to get involved in the primary," Newsom, who will term out in 2027, told reporters. "It’s my intention to do everything that needs to be done to make sure that there’s not a lockout for a Democratic choice in the general election."

There may be more to Newsom's reluctance.

When asked why, given that his backing could persuade voters in a crowded field and some polls show as many as 1 in 4 voters are still unsure of their choice, Newsom said he's withholding support because of “the basis of prior relationships” with many of the candidates.

It could also be, as McCuan at Sonoma State believes, that "the Democrats aren’t terribly excited about one candidate: That 'It' feeling just isn’t there."

Low-polling Democratic candidates don't want 'spoiler' label

California Democratic Party chair Rusty Hicks rattles off a list of reasons the stakes are so high in the Golden State. To begin with, 1 in 8 Americans lives in California. It's the epicenter of big tech and Artificial Intelligence. The state often initiates the national discussion on issues such as environmental protection, fair working conditions, and minority rights, which, in turn, triggers parallel efforts or counterefforts elsewhere in the country.

It's also home to key players on the national scene. The last Democratic presidential candidate, Harris, and perhaps a future candidate, Newsom, come from California. Hicks mentioned that Newsom spearheaded efforts behind California's Proposition 50, the first blue state to redraw congressional district lines to counteract Texas's Trump-inspired redistricting effort three months prior. The Texas-California standoff sparked a polarizing redistricting battle nationwide.

Also, whoever becomes California governor will inherit a state with a roughly $4 trillion economy, the fourth-largest in the world. They will also inherit the role of managingCalifornia's multibillion-dollar debt, Medicaid access amid federal spending cuts, soaring homelessness, as property values render big cities near-unlivable for working families, and the ongoing crisis of wildfire prevention and recovery.

Dozens of candidates vie to be California's next governor

Voters will see 61 gubernatorial candidates on their primary ballots (which incidentally take up nearly 2 feet of tiny ink). They include former Democratic congressman and gubernatorial frontrunner Eric Swalwell, who dropped out after allegations of sexual assault and misconduct, which he denies. Former state controller Betty Yee polled low and ended her campaign. (State law prevents the removal of candidate names after a certain date.) 

Democrats faced a dilemma last July after Harris declined to run for the state's top job. California’s U.S. senators, Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff, bowed out. This led to a flood of candidates, and befuddled state Democrats who failed to endorse one at their February convention in San Francisco. 

In March, Hicks, the party chair, wrote an open letter urging any long-shot hopefuls to drop out of the governor's race. He warned at the time that the scenario of two Republicans vying for the top spot was "implausible," but "not impossible" in a heavily blue state.

But while that may appear unlikely, according to the poll sponsored by state Democrats and seven of the last 10 other polls, there's always a chance the Democrats could cancel each other out. Except for Yee, candidates aren't dropping out because of a lack of money, failure to get included in debates, or not landing those key endorsements.

"It is pride," McCuan believes.

Which makes the possibility of the top two GOP contenders in the general election very intriguing, Craig DeLuz, director of communications for the California Republican Assembly, told USA TODAY. Arnold Schwarzenegger served as the state's last Republican governor from 2003 to 2011. And, of course, actor and former California Gov. Ronald Reagan went on to serve two terms as president.

DeLuz noticed the Democrats becoming more combative, taking shots at Becerra during the last two debates as the former state attorney general is now considered the party's frontrunner. They've reignited speculation about whether Becerra played a role in the fraud and campaign funds theft scheme involving Dana Williamson, a former top aide to Newsom and onetime Becerra political adviser.

Williamson pleaded guilty in federal court on May 14 after accepting a plea deal to multiple charges, including committing bank and wire fraud, filing a false tax return, and lying to the FBI. Williamson admitted to diverting $225,000 from a dormant Beccera campaign account to Sean McCluskie, Becerra’s longtime chief of staff. Becerra has not been accused of any wrongdoing and has denied any knowledge of the fraud.

"The challenge is that the Democrats are doing crabs in a barrel – anytime one of them pops up, the rest hit him hard," DeLuz said.

He believes the Southern California sheriff running as a Republican could benefit from that squabbling. "I think that’s what gives Bianco a puncher’s chance of getting into the top two. Here's the big question: 'Is it going to be a Democrat or Chad Bianco?'"

Democratic Party chair stands pat

This heightened quarreling could be why Hicks' position hasn't changed.

"My call to the candidates has always been for them to honestly assess the viability of their campaign and their path to the general election," Hicks told USA TODAY. "That call was important then, and it’s even more important now. My call from two months ago still stands."

The real questions facing those low-polling Democratic candidates, such as Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, are whether they drop out now and become a surrogate for another candidate, or stay and be seen as splintering the Democratic vote, said Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Menlo College in Silicon Valley.

"If you want to get Democratic support in the future, you have to show you're a team player," Michelson said. "You don't want to risk being labeled as a spoiler, but you also don’t want to be seen as a quitter. It's not an easy choice."

Thurmond, the state superintendent, has reason to get out, McCuan, the Sonoma State professor, believes. And while Villagrosa has been "landing punches in the last three debates and fighting above his weight," McCuan said, the ex-LA mayor has no shot at winning.

"Villagrosa has money to sustain, but I think all he serves is a drain on the Democrats," McCuan said.

Is Becerra's momentum enough to get a big-name backing?

Meanwhile, Hicks said he has been impressed by Becerra's surge. The former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary's candidacy was flailing, and he was repeatedly polling in single digits; he is now among the top contenders after Swalwell’s dramatic departure.

Becerra has gained 15 percentage points since the first poll sponsored by California Democrats was released on March 24. He has been climbing in similar polls and capitalizing on loyal Democratic voters, Latinos, and even those with no party preference, Hicks said.

"It speaks to the fluidity of the race. When you have a candidate in Eric Swalwell whose campaign implodes, and voters begin to tune in new and different ways, some see Becerra as one they can get behind," Hicks said. "He’s certainly moving in the right direction."

But probably not enough to get a ringing endorsement from the state's top political bigwigs – yet.

Sobel, the veteran political analyst, said bluntly, "I think they might take a pass."

(This story has been updated to add new information.)