Paxton leads Cornyn in new GOP Texas Senate runoff poll. What to know

Sen. John Cornyn is trailing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the GOP primary runoff for U.S. Senate, according to a new poll, with the runoff election right around the corner.

A new poll from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs shows the incumbent is being edged out by Paxton, with 7% of likely voters still undecided.

With early voting set to start on Monday, May 18, and Election Day on Tuesday, May 26, Republican voters have a short time to decide who will be their candidate to go ahead of Democratic candidate James Talarico in the November 2026 general election.

Here's what the latest polling says.

Paxton takes lead over Cornyn in Texas US Senate race

The poll was conducted from April 28 to May 1, sampling 1,200 Texas voters likely to participate in the statewide May 2026 Republican primary runoff.

According to the poll, Paxton — 48% — leads Cornyn — 45% — by 3 percentage points among Texans who are likely to vote in the May 2026 Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff election. 7% of the likely voters are still unsure how they would vote. The margin of error is +/- 2.83%.

Breaking those numbers down to favorability ratings, 50% found Paxton favorable, 43% unfavorable, with 7% not knowing enough to give an opinion.

Cornyn, on the other hand, had a 47% favorability rating among voters, with 49% holding an unfavorable opinion of the senator.

Whoever wins the May runoff election will have to face Democratic candidate James Talarico in November 2026.

Texas Republicans split on whether Cornyn or Paxton could beat Talarico

The Houston poll asked voters which GOP candidate had a strong chance of defeating Talarico in the November General Election. The results:

• 43% — Cornyn.
• 43% — Paxton.
• 14% — neither candidate.

A previous April poll from the Texas Public Opinion Research showed Talarico leading Cornyn by three percentage points, 44% to 41%, and also leads Paxton by five percentage points, 46% to 41%.

What issues does Texas GOP care about heading into May runoff election?

The Houston poll asked voters which issues they thought mattered the most in the Republican primary runoff election — election integrity, immigration and border security, inflation and cost of living, jobs and the economy, Second Amendment rights and violent crime.

The results were:

1. Immigration and border security — 33%.
2. Inflation and the cost of living — 25%.
3. Election integrity — 22%.
4. Jobs and the economy — 14%.
5. Second Amendment rights — 4%.
6. Violent crime — 2%.

40% of voters cited immigration and border security issues as reasons for voting for Paxton, with 31% citing election integrity.

Those voting for Cornyn cited inflation and the cost of living — 36% — and jobs and the economy — 19% — as the reasons.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him: [email protected].