Voting opens in Cornyn-Paxton runoff as poll shows November risk

• A new poll shows Democratic candidate James Talarico in a statistical tie with both Republican U.S. Senate candidates, John Cornyn and Ken Paxton.
• Talarico has a higher favorability rating (46%) than both Paxton (42%) and Cornyn (37%) among likely Texas voters.
• Talarico holds a significant lead over both Republican candidates among independent voters.

As early voting begins in Texas's high-stakes Republican U.S. Senate runoff between Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a new poll suggests whichever republican wins could face an uphill battle in November.

The survey from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center shows Democratic Candidate James Talarico statistically tied with both Cornyn and Paxton in hypothetical general-election matchups — a striking finding in a state where Democrats haven't won a statewide election since 1994.

Cornyn and Paxton are competing in the Tuesday, May 26, runoff to become the Republican nominee, with the winner facing Talarico, a state representative from Austin, and Libertarian Ted Brown in November.

Here's what the poll found.

James Talarico has the highest favorability of the three

The poll has a +/- 2.80% margin of error and was conducted between April 22 and May 6, surveying 1,223 voters considered likely to participate in the November 2026 midterm election.

The poll found that Talarico is viewed favorably by 46% of November 2026 Texas likely voters and unfavorably by35%. 19% of likely voters do not know enough about him to have an opinion.

He leads both Cornyn and Paxton:

• Paxton: 42% favorable, 48% unfavorable, with 10% no opinion.
• Cornyn: 37% favorable, 49% unfavorable, with 14% no opinion.

The poll also used President Trump's favorability as a baseline, showing that among likely November voters, 48% viewed him favorably, 51% unfavorably, with 1% having no opinion.

If John Cornyn wins Texas runoff

If Cornyn wins the runoff on May 26, 45% of likely voters would vote for Cornyn, 44% for Democrat James Talarico, 3% for Libertarian Ted Brown, and 8% undecided.

Cornyn would also get 91% of Paxton voters if he were the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in November, while 0% would vote for Talarico and 3% for Brown, with 6% undecided.

Cornyn performs best among white voters, men, baby boomers, and those without a college degree. Talarico, on the other hand, leads among Black voters and Gen Z and holds a narrower edge among Latino voters.

Most notably, Talarico holds a 40% to 18% lead over Cornyn among independents.

If Texas AG Ken Paxton wins runoff

If Paxton wins the runoff on May 26, 45% of likely voters would vote for Paxton, 45% for Democrat James Talarico, 2% for Libertarian Ted Brown, and 8% undecided.

Paxton would get 90% of Cornyn voters, while 2% would vote for Talarico and 2% for Brown, with 6% undecided.

In a Paxton-Talarico contest, Paxton polls well among the same demographic as Cornyn does. However, Talarico's edge among Latino voters is slightly wider against Paxton than against Cornyn.

Talarico also holds a 45% to 20% lead over Paxton among independents.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at [email protected].