JD Vance for president in 2028? It starts with MAGA voters — and Trump

WASHINGTON – JD Vance was the first person Vicki Schwartz cast a ballot for in Ohio.

She had just moved to the state from California, where she taught public school. He was trying his hand at politics by running for the U.S. Senate after working for a San Francisco-based investment firm.

The 70-year-old suburban Columbus resident says she read Vance’s bestselling memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy,” and she's two chapters into his new one. Vance has impressed her. She gushed about his appearance this month on "The View."

Still, she’s conflicted about who she'd vote for in 2028 if Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio both seek the Republican nomination to succeed President Donald Trump: “I kind of feel like they should flip a coin, and then whoever wins the coin flip, that one runs for president, or gets first choice,” Schwartz said as she attended President Donald Trump’s June 24 rally on the National Mall.

Would an endorsement from the president help her make her decision? Absolutely, she says.

Yet, as GOP voters look to Trump for guidance, he remains noncommittal, and Vance is coming under increasing pressure to cement his spot as the GOP candidate to beat by early next year.

In conversations with nearly a dozen sources close to the White House, most of whom requested anonymity to discuss private interactions, allies of the president and vice president said Trump isn’t sold on Vance as his 2028 pick. The president has been asking those around him what they think of Vance and Rubio, a more seasoned politician who has become one of Trump’s most trusted advisers on international affairs.

It’s the ultimate game of "The Apprentice," and Trump feels he still has plenty of time to decide, one person close to the White House said.

Vance has not said publicly whether he intends to run for higher office. But he’s been seizing the spotlight as he lays the foundation for a potential bid through the promotion of his new book, "Communion," and interviews tied to the Iran peace negotiations. 

He insists he's focused on helping Republicans win the November midterms and excelling at the vice presidency. 

“I don't think that you should be thinking so much about a job you could have years down the road when you're still a year and a half into the job the American people elected you to do,” Vance told USA TODAY in a June interview.

'A little more articulate'

Vance’s early performance as vice president appears to be helping his prospects.

Nasim Nabily, a 43-year-old business owner from Landover, Maryland, said he is “not as hard-hitting as Trump, but he’s a little more articulate." Vance is well-versed on policy and exudes confidence, she said.

Like many Republicans who spoke to USA TODAY at the Trump rally, Nabily said she was familiar with "Hillbilly Elegy" and had seen him defending the administration’s policies on television. 

But they didn't know much more about the Ohio native, who converted to Trumpism and Catholicism not long before he ran for office.

Logan Hottell, a recent high school graduate from Stanton, Virginia, identified Vance as a former Marine. The 18-year-old said he’s inclined to support Vance and would like to learn more.

Enter "Communion," which continues the tradition of possible presidential candidates authoring books that help to define themselves to voters. In one passage, Vance says that he backs state-level bans on businesses being open on holidays like Thanksgiving so that workers can be with their families. The policy proposal puts rare daylight between Vance and Trump, who’s pushed for fewer non-working federal holidays, and could help Vance appeal to independent voters.

In his interview with USA TODAY, Vance said he supports the right of workers to privately unionize and bargain for higher wages, another position Trump has not embraced. He described himself as both an economic populist and a religious conservative – and said it’s consistent with his Christian, Catholic faith that there be a distribution of resources that's consistent with the common good. 

“I don't think economic populism is somehow inconsistent with religious conservatism. I would say the tradition of the Christian church is very supportive of a particular kind of economic populism,” he said.

But as the vice president tries to stake out his lane with voters, he also needs to continue proving himself to Trump.

Donald Trump, the decider

JD or Marco? It’s a question Trump has been posing privately to people around him for at least a year. At meetings, in the Oval Office, at Mar-a-Lago. He polled a crowd of law enforcement officers publicly at a recent Rose Garden dinner. 

“Who likes JD Vance?” Trump quipped. “Who likes Marco Rubio? Alright, sounds like a good ticket.” He quickly added, “That does not mean you have my endorsement under any circumstance.”

Although the 2028 lineup is far from settled, speculation on the GOP side largely centers around the two highest-ranking Cabinet officials.

The president is heavily focused on who has the best chance of winning, two people close to the White House said. And he’s looking at Rubio, a former Florida senator and 2016 presidential contender, and wondering if he’d have a better shot than Vance, they said.

Vance has long been viewed as more closely aligned with the MAGA base, with Rubio facing suspicions about his work on immigration reform and hawkish record. But the Trump competitor-turned-close-ally has clearly made up ground. 

An Emerson College survey of Republican voters released in May showed Vance with 36% support and Rubio at 35%, a statistical tie given the 4.7 percentage-point margin of error.

Trump has a long history of polling those around him about decisions he may or may not make in the future, another person close to the White House said, adding that the president is always looking to gauge public sentiment. He often figures that out via pointed questions.

It doesn’t mean he’s down on Vance, another person said, adding he may simply be trying to keep the vice president on his toes and motivated to deliver. Vance is still the default nominee, and Trump entrusting him with an Iran deal that could make or break his presidency is a sign of Vance’s clout, the person added.

Iran could be key to Vance's candidacy

Vance’s role as the Republican National Committee's chief fundraiser has helped him get in front of another key constituency – donors – and made him the face of midterm campaigning. 

But Rubio has run for president once before, has a longer track record with donors and has more experience politically and on foreign policy, an area in which Vance has actively tried to improve his bona fides.

Vance appears to be auditioning for Trump’s endorsement in negotiating an Iran deal, one person close to the White House said, a charge that friends of the vice president denied.

Trump has been taking note and critiquing his performance. “I thought JD Vance this morning was fantastic,” Trump said on June 22 after Vance traveled overseas to meet with Iranian leaders. “I watched his news conference from Switzerland. He's a very smart guy. He did a great job.”

But a few days earlier, on June 17, the president quipped that if the deal goes sideways, it will be Vance’s fault.

A bad deal would be a death knell for Vance, one person close to the White House said. If the perception is that it's not a win, it will be a massive political vulnerability for him, the person added.

Trump loves to keep people guessing and motivated to impress him, and he has repeatedly waited until the last minute to endorse. If Trump does that with Vance, it could give other potential candidates an opening.

Rubio has said he wants to stay in his current role until the end of Trump’s term and has indicated publicly that he won’t run if Vance does. But one insider said Rubio's actions, like taking the White House podium in May, tell a different story.

Trump has suggested multiple times that they run together on one ticket. He hasn’t said which one of them should be at the top.

Three sources close to the White House said U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, who declined to comment, is also considering a run, and other big names could emerge.

Vance 'can wait longer than anyone else'

Trump proved again and again during the early midterm election jockeying that his endorsement drives outcomes in GOP primaries. The MAGA base has rallied behind nearly every congressional candidate he backed.

Retired real estate agent Paul Ayers, a 73-year-old Trump backer who came to Washington from Phoenix to attend the president’s rally, said that Vance and Rubio are “both really excellent” but he suspects the VP would have the organizing edge. He notes that Trump’s pick for Iowa governor, Randy Feenstra, lost the Republican primary to a Turning Point USA-backed candidate.

“I think I’m going to go with Vance no matter what,” he said of a Trump endorsement.

Vance has said he’ll huddle with his wife, Usha, after the midterms, without specifying when exactly he’ll make an announcement. 

“I just haven't really thought that much about it,” Vance told USA TODAY when asked if he thought it had to be by the end of the year.

Vance’s team hasn’t done any polling or organizing in possible early states, and they don’t view him as needing to make a decision in 2026.

GOP operatives with experience on presidential campaigns have mixed views on how long Vance can wait. Early jockeying could begin shortly after the midterms, but candidates with stronger name ID may have a longer runway.

“By virtue of his official position, Vance is a major player without having to announce,” said Mike DuHaime, a GOP consultant and former political director for the RNC. “He can wait longer than anyone else.”

Republican strategist Matt Gorman said the incumbency advantage helps Vance – he can travel on Air Force Two and he’s exempt from a law that restricts U.S. officials’ ability to engage in politics.

And while Trump's pick of Vance as his running mate was a de facto endorsement of his ability to step into the top job, Gorman said, “I don’t expect, candidly, Trump to, the day after the midterms, anoint Vance."

"Vance will go out, and he’ll earn it."

Contributing: Zach Schermele