It's June 1, what are the tropics cooking up so far?

Welcome to the start of the 2026 hurricane season, when millions will focus – some slightly, others anxiously – on whether ingredients are coming together in the atmosphere to produce a hurricane or tropical storm.

Will El Niño turn the burner up on Pacific Ocean temperatures? Will it drive wind patterns that restrict storm formation in the Atlantic? Only time will tell.

Social media posts about potential storms that could form in early June started popping up in the final days of May, citing the GFS U.S. global weather model. But retired federal meteorologist Alan Gerard quickly advised caution in a post on his Substack blog Balanced Weather.

The model tends to spin up "fantasy tropical storms and hurricanes" at the beginning of every season in the Gulf of Mexico, which the Trump administration has renamed the Gulf of America, Gerard said. The GFS has a "very well-known bias of overproducing tropical cyclones," especially early in the season, he said.

As a result, it "enables a lot of social media hype generators to get people wound up about hurricane threats right off the bat," he said. But it's a "known problem with the model, not a sign of something real in the atmosphere."

So what are the actual things forecasters are watching today?

• The Gulf? Heating up.
• Saharan dust? Billowing over the Atlantic.
• El Niño? Still brewing.

Short-term outlooks for tropical activity

No tropical activity is forecast in the Atlantic during the first week of June, the National Hurricane Center wrote in its outlook on the morning of June 1. Part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the center's forecasters track fronts, tropical waves and other areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic, Gulf, Caribbean and eastern Pacific.

NOAA's most recent two-week hazards outlook shows no issues of concern in the Atlantic basin through mid-June. A new version will be released June 2. Forecasters have emphasized the Gulf could be problematic early in the season and bears watching.

Forecasters at AccuWeather, a private weather company, point out that another global pattern called the Madden Julian Oscillation is scheduled to make its influence felt over the Atlantic hurricane basin in the second week of June, which could potentially make conditions more friendly for storm formation. But they also say the chances for any tropical activity are low.

On June 1, the hurricane center was watching three tropical waves in the Atlantic, but the waves aren't an immediate cause for concern among the millions who live within reach of a hurricane or its remnants. About 80 tropical waves are produced each year in the Atlantic basin, Christopher Landsea, chief of the center's tropical analysis and forecast branch, previously told USA TODAY. The center monitors the waves because most hurricanes develop from tropical waves.

What's the outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season?

Thanks primarily to the hurricane-snuffing impacts of El Niño, a "below-normal season" is predicted for 2026 in the Atlantic Ocean basin. Expect to see between eight and 14 named tropical storms this season, NOAA's seasonal outlook predicts. That includes three to six hurricanes, one to three of which could be major hurricanes.

A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its sustained winds reach 74 mph.

A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, seven of which spin into hurricanes, based on weather records from 1991 to 2020.

Another influential forecast, from meteorologists at Colorado State University, predicts a total of 13 tropical storms will form, of which six will become hurricanes.

Both Ken Graham, weather service director, and Michael Brennan, hurricane center director, urge hurricane-prone residents to pay no attention to the seasonal outlooks. Prepare for every hurricane season, they say, because it only takes one storm to make it a bad hurricane season in any community.

The Atlantic season typically peaks between August and October.

What's happening in the Eastern Pacific?

Two areas of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific, where hurricane season started May 15, are being monitored by the hurricane center. One area, a red blob on the Eastern Pacific outlook roughly 1,500 miles southwest of Mexico City, has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next seven days as it moves west-northwestward in the Pacific, the hurricane center said on June 1.

The second potential disturbance is a large, elongated area offshore that stretches from the southern tip of Mexico nearly to El Salvador.

Saharan dust moving westward

A large mass of dry, dusty air with "high concentrations of Saharan dust" has been making its way across the Atlantic Ocean and is moving over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Caribbean, the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico said on May 31. The service advised sensitive people with respiratory conditions to take precautions.

The phenomenon is a routine occurrence at this time of year, and can extend as far west as Texas. The Saharan air layer "typically ramps up in mid-June and peaks from late June to mid-August, with new outbreaks occurring every three to five days," according to NOAA.

The agency tracks the movement of the air layer via satellite, and is particularly interested because the warmth, dry air and strong winds have been known to suppress the formation and intensity of hurricanes. Another plus side to the annual arrival of the dust is the spectacular effects it can add to sunsets.

How warm are water temperatures?

Warm water is a key ingredient in building strong hurricanes. While global average sea surface temperature is flirting with record highs, sea surface temperatures are near normal in the main region of the Atlantic where hurricanes develop, according to the Climate Reanalyzer at the University of Maine's Climate Change Institute.

In the El Niño region along the Equator west of South America, however, sea surface temperatures have risen sharply.

Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf also are very warm, less than a degree away from records set in 2024, according to the Climate Reanalyzer at the University of Maine's Climate Change Institute.

What's the latest on El Niño?

With near record sea surface temperatures pushing westward in the El Niño region, it's a telltale sign of the beginning of an El Niño.

The formation of the cyclical pattern is already "clearly well underway," according to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources. The atmosphere and oceans are cooperating and appear to be consistent with model forecasts for "a significant El Niño to develop by mid-summer," Swain wrote in a recent update on his WeatherWest website.

NOAA's most recent forecast predicted El Niño likely would form in June or July. The agency's next update on the climate pattern is expected on June 11. The formation of El Niño is forecast to lead to a busier than normal season in the Pacific and possibly a slightly below-normal season in the Atlantic basin, according to seasonal forecast outlooks.

How many days until the season is over?

Hurricane season starts June 1 in the Atlantic basin and ends on Nov. 30, so only 182 days to go.

Dinah Voyles Pulver and Doyle Rice are national correspondents for USA TODAY, writing about hurricanes, violent weather and climate change. Reach her at [email protected] or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X and reach Doyle at [email protected]