Trump holds the cards against Xi at China summit | Opinion

The word of the week is “weak.”

Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post declared in a headline on May 9 that “Trump heads to China weakened as Xi gains leverage ahead of summit.”

That same day, Bill Emmott, former editor of The Economist, wrote on Substack that President Donald Trump “will be the one in the weaker position” when he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The most immediate issue on the agenda for the summit scheduled to begin May 14 in Beijing is the Iran war.

“You know, in all fairness, he gets like 60% of his oil from Hormuz,” Trump said on May 5 in the Oval Office, referring to Xi and the Strait of Hormuz outside Iran. “He’s been very respectful. We haven’t been challenged by China. They don’t challenge us. And he wouldn’t do that. I don’t think he’d do that because of me.”

So who actually holds the leverage?

Trump still holds key leverage over Xi

First, Xi appears to believe he can act with impunity. Beijing has provided Tehran with diplomatic backing, propaganda and economic support and targeting data. Iran also possesses Chinese weapons, including the anti-ship cruise missiles fired at the USS Abraham Lincoln in late March. By all indications, Beijing has continued resupplying the mullah’s arsenals throughout the war.

Moreover, Xi has not been especially respectful. On May 2, China’s Commerce Ministry invoked the country’s anti-sanction law for the first time, ordering Chinese entities not to comply with the U.S. Treasury’s April 24 sanctions on Hengli Petrochemical’s Dalian refinery and nearly 40 other parties involved in Iran’s oil trade.

 Xi, who continually speaks of the West as in decline, is behaving as if he sets the parameters for relations with America. This should not come as a surprise. Xi projects the imperial mindset long associated with Chinese rulers. 

“When foreign leaders visit Beijing, they are viewed not as peers, but as modern equivalents of tribal chieftains arriving to pay tribute,” Charles Burton of the Sinopsis think tank told me recently. “To the imperial mindset, these outsiders are inferiors. Because Xi views himself as the modern successor to this lineage of great emperors, the concept of equal friendship with any foreign leader is entirely absent from his worldview. Trump should not believe his relationship with Xi is rooted in mutual respect.”

Trump has tried to strengthen his bargaining position by imposing limited costs on Beijing, though so far those measures resemble warnings more than meaningful punishments. He has also sought to put the best possible face on the war to minimize Chinese perceptions of leverage.

Trump, for example, had recently insisted that America and Iran were close to an agreement and, when it was apparent they were not, he then pivoted by making it clear he was not afraid of ending the ceasefire. Few appear convinced, however, and the optics for Washington are not especially strong.

So what should Trump do now?

Many argued he should have postponed the summit again. After all, despite how he views himself, Trump looks like a supplicant.

But Trump is still Trump, and he remains fully capable of turning the tables on Xi Jinping with remarkable speed. 

Trade, Iran give US real power against China's rare earth dominance

When it comes to Iran, for instance, Trump can strike the regime’s capabilities directly. Among the most significant targets is a rail link that Iran has to China. Tehran has reportedly been using this to send crude oil eastward, and U.S. airpower could sever it quickly. He could also impose a no-fly zone to block Chinese transports from replenishing Iran’s munitions stockpiles.

Such moves would send Xi a clear message: Trump is not intimidated.

Beyond Iran, Trump has a broad range of pressure points to exploit, from artificial intelligence and fentanyl to Taiwan and human rights. The United States remains far more powerful than China overall, and Washington has no shortage of strategic options for increasing pressure on Beijing.

Consider trade. China is more export-dependent today than it has been in decades because the Communist Party, for political reasons, has failed to build a consumer-driven economy. Beijing needs foreign consumers, and the United States alone accounts for roughly 30% of global consumption.

Xi, therefore, badly needs continued access to the U.S. market, which Trump, despite recent tariff setbacks in the courts, can still restrict through multiple avenues. He can also tighten controls on advanced microchips, which overwhelmingly come from U.S. firms such as Nvidia and AMD.

Finally, Trump could direct Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to invoke Section 311 of the USA Patriot Act, severing Chinese banks involved in persistent money laundering from their dollar accounts – a move that could significantly destabilize China’s banking system.

China’s strongest cards remain its rare earth near-monopolies and pharmaceutical monopolies. But Trump’s policies are already beginning to erode Beijing’s dominance over critical minerals, even if reducing pharmaceutical dependence will take longer. By contrast, China’s own economic and financial dependencies on the United States are far more difficult for Xi to escape.

Xi may see himself as heir to China’s great emperors, but modern China is not the unquestioned center of the world. Trump should approach this summit accordingly.

In short, Trump should take Xi down a notch or two. The American president can do a lot with his signing pen.

Gordon G. Chang is the author of "Plan Red: China’s Project to Destroy America" and "The Coming Collapse of China." Follow him on X: @GordonGChang