In Paxton, Cornyn runoff, Texas Republicans face disappointment | Opinion
It's unfortunate that many Texans feel compelled to vote for the candidate they believe is most likely to defeat a Democrat, rather than simply the best Republican to represent them.
Nicole RussellTexas Republicans face a bitter U.S. Senate runoff on May 26 between longtime Washington insider Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the MAGA-aligned firebrand who finally secured President Donald Trump's endorsement at the 11th hour.
The race offers Republicans two dramatically different visions for the party's future: the old-guard establishment represented by Cornyn and the combative, controversy-driven populism embodied by Paxton. The eventual nominee will then face Democratic Rep. James Talarico, a rising Democrat many Republicans view as far more politically formidable than he first appears.
About the only thing Cornyn and Paxton seem to share is a long career in politics, though neither has exactly elevated the profession’s reputation along the way. It's unfortunate that Texas Republicans face such a consequential choice between two deeply flawed options: one politician entrenched in establishment politics and the other mired in controversy.
Texans deserve better than this, but here we are.
Cornyn vs. Paxton: Insider or instigator?
If polls are to be trusted, the race between Cornyn and Paxton is close. A RealClearPolitics average shows Paxton leading Cornyn by a mere three points.
The last few years have reshaped Texas politics, especially among Republicans. In 2020, Cornyn faced no serious Republican challenger and defeated his Democratic opponent by nearly 10 points. But Trump's 2024 victory changed the political landscape again. Trump won Texas by more than 56%, and the state has become even more Republican since 2020 as conservative voters from blue states continue moving to the Lone Star State.
At the same time, Cornyn has frustrated some Republicans who view him as a RINO, or Republican In Name Only. After the horrific Uvalde school shooting, he helped pass the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, gun safety and mental health legislation that some conservatives believed undermined their Second Amendment rights. Cornyn also sponsored the Juneteenth National Independence Day Act, which made Juneteenth a federal holiday, legislation some conservatives view as more performative than substantive.
Cornyn has established himself among his colleagues in Washington, and he knows how to build coalitions with Republicans and Democrats. He also raises money well: In the first quarter of 2026, Cornyn outraised Paxton fourfold. And unlike Paxton, he doesn't court controversy.
Paxton might be one of the few Republicans ever to run for U.S. Senate after being both indicted and impeached. A state securities fraud indictment against him was dismissed after he reached a plea deal. Senate Republicans acquitted Paxton after a lengthy and expensive impeachment trial in 2023, during which his extramarital affair became a central focus. His wife, a state senator, filed for divorce in 2025 after 38 years of marriage.
Despite this troubled record – or, some wonder, because of it – Paxton remains popular among MAGA Texans for many reasons, including his aggressively litigious approach toward the Biden administration, which he sued at least 100 times.
He's built a base that admires his bulldog, take-on-the-establishment populism, which helps explain Trump's endorsement.
Why Texas Republicans are left with these choices is a case study in how modern politics often rewards ambition and combativeness over integrity and public service. Texans deserve better than this, but that change will have to come another day.
Republican winner still faces a real challenge
The winner, however disappointing that person may be, will have to rally Republicans who didn't support him in the runoff to win in November.
His opponent, Rep. James Talarico, is one of the more alarming Texas Democrats I've seen.
A former teacher and seminarian, Talarico sounds moderate, which could appeal to Texas Democrats. But it is a disguise for harmful, progressive views most Texans don't support: Talarico is pro-abortion rights and even suggests there's a basis in Christianity for it. He called the right's push to protect women's sports a "far-right conspiracy."
In 2020, he posted on social media that White people spread the "virus of racism." On immigration, Talarico referred to undocumented migrants as his "constituents" and encouraged immigrants and Texans to "fight back" against Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Yet some data suggests Talarico could be holding his own.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten posted on X that "Talarico winning in Texas is no fantasy. He's polling better than any Dem Senate nominee at this point since 2002. Unlike [Robert "Beto"] O'Rourke in 2018, Talarico's ahead now. Paxton's much less popular than Cruz was. Trump is less popular now than in 2018."
A May Texas Southern University survey also suggests a competitive general election. In a hypothetical matchup between Cornyn and Talarico, 45% of likely voters said they would support Cornyn, compared with 44% for Talarico. In a Paxton-Talarico matchup, the race was tied.
Politico reported that Trump's last-minute endorsement of Paxton over Cornyn angered some Senate Republicans because they believe Paxton would leave Texas more vulnerable to Democrats.
Trump told reporters on May 20 that he believes Paxton will defeat Talarico because he's “a very defective candidate, a candidate that believes in six genders. ... And he's a vegan. He's a vegan in Texas. And you can't get elected as a vegan in Texas.”
Paxton doesn't seem worried about Talarico either. He told Fox News' Laura Ingraham, "We've had Republicans in control since 1994, not a single Democrat statewide. I've won three statewides in a row. I'm so convinced once people know his views on the issues, I don't think there's a place for him to get elected statewide here in Texas."
I tend to agree with Paxton, so long as the Republican nominee can clearly highlight Talarico's record. I know what the data say, but I don't entirely trust them. Texas Republicans would rather vote for a conservative they dislike than a Democrat like Talarico.
Still, it's unfortunate that many Republicans feel compelled to vote for the candidate they believe is most likely to defeat a Democrat, rather than simply the best Republican to represent them in the U.S. Senate. Those might not be the same person.
Nicole Russell is an opinion columnist with USA TODAY. She lives in Texas with her four kids. Sign up for her newsletter, The Right Track, and get it delivered to your inbox.