Democrats are ignoring the candidates who could win in 2028 | Opinion

Early polling for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary has former Vice President Kamala Harris as the front-runner, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Some of the party's stronger general election prospects, including Govs. Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, are stuck in the low single digits.

Naturally, those with more name recognition get more attention in early primary polling, and there is plenty of time for the field to change. But that dynamic points to a real problem for Democrats.

Their most recognizable presidential candidates are also their weakest. The names voters already know are the ones who would struggle most in a general election, while the candidates best positioned to actually win are starting from near zero.

Harris? Buttigieg? The Democratic front-runners are weak.

Harris leading the pack makes sense – she was the nominee in 2024. But nominating her again would be a grave mistake.

She will try to explain her loss to President Donald Trump as a matter of circumstance, pointing to Joe Biden's late exit and the compressed timeline. Those were real handicaps.

Even so, they don't explain away her shortcomings as a candidate. Even with a full campaign, she would have had to answer for her record in the Biden administration: a struggling economy, a broken border and the extreme positions she staked out during her 2020 presidential run.

Buttigieg has his own Biden-era baggage. His tenure as Transportation secretary was marked by slow responses to supply chain crises during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Federal Aviation Administration's failures that left travelers stranded.

Republicans will make the argument simply: If you couldn't handle the Department of Transportation, you can't handle the Oval Office.

Then there's the Biden cover-up problem. As a member of Biden’s Cabinet, Buttigieg either knew about the president's decline and said nothing, or was too peripheral to notice. Neither is a defense. He has been grudging at best in acknowledging Biden's impairment even now. Democrats looking to put that chapter behind them would be wise to nominate someone who wasn't in the room.

Newsom has genuine political talents – he's charismatic and has a gift for needling Republicans on the national stage. But the positives end there.

California under his watch has been defined by botched megaprojects, a cost-of-living crisis and six straight years of leading the country in residents leaving. He has tried to sand down his progressive edges on culture war issues, but you can't run from a record that bad and expect voters to take you seriously.

The California governor's pretentiousness won't travel well in the Midwest, where the presidency will likely be decided. Voters there will be reminded of the French Laundry scandal – Newsom dining at one of the country's most expensive restaurants while ordering everyone else to stay home under his own COVID-19 restrictions. Working-class swing-state voters despise politicians who consider themselves exempt from the rules they impose, and Newsom is a walking embodiment of that type.

Ocasio-Cortez has a firm grip on the progressive base, but the congresswoman representing New York would be a disaster in a general election. She could win the primary. Democrats should hope she doesn't.

Forget Newsom. Democrats should look to Shapiro, Beshear.

The weakness at the top of the field doesn't mean Democrats are without options. They have two governors who have proved they can win in contested territory – and in a cycle where voters may be hungry for competence and stability, that matters.

Pennsylvania's Shapiro was considered a leading vice presidential contender in the last presidential race before being passed over, or taking himself out. He is a moderate, well-spoken governor likely to win reelection in a state Trump carried in 2024.

Shapiro can win independents, and Republicans quietly dread the prospect of running against him. He is polling in the low single digits, and building national name recognition will be an uphill climb. But Shapiro has the profile the Democratic establishment should be looking for.

The obstacle is Shapiro's faith and his stance on Israel. A meaningful share of the Democratic base will not back a Jewish candidate who supports Israel, and that alone could sink him in a presidential primary. It's an uncomfortable reality for the party, but a real one.

Kentucky Gov. Beshear is the other name worth watching. In 2023, he won by a narrow margin in a state Trump carried by a landslide a year later, and he remains broadly popular there.

Beshear is a composed, moderate executive who is already making stops in Iowa – the traditional opening move of a presidential campaign. The attention he is drawing hasn't shown up in national polls yet, but it may be only a matter of time.

Both could be serious contenders if the party gives them a real look. Democrats' best shot at the presidency in 2028 is probably not leading any poll right now. The loudest names at the top of the field are also the most beatable.

Dace Potas is an opinion columnist for USA TODAY and a graduate of DePaul University with a degree in political science.