Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

The Seattle Mariners (21-23) and the Houston Astros (17-27) wrap up a 4-game series Thursday at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze MLB odds around the Mariners vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

2026 season series: Mariners lead 6-1

The Astros (+116) won 4-3 in 10 innings Wednesday as the Under (9) cashed. RF/LF Zach Cole (3 for 4, RBI) hit a walk-off RBI single in the 10th as Houston beat Seattle for the first time in 7 tries this season and in 10 games dating back to last year. 1B Christian Walker was 1 for 5 with a solo homer, his 10th of the season, and 2B Jose Altuve, despite an 0-for-3 night, finished with 2 RBIs (bases-loaded walk and a sacrifice fly).

For the Mariners, SS J.P. Crawford went 2 for 5 with a solo homer, his fifth of the season, while RF Luke Raley (2 for 3) also had a solo pop, his ninth round-tripper. LF Randy Arozarena stayed hot, too, going 2 for 5, collecting 2+ hits in each of the first 3 games of the series. He has also hit safely in 7 in a row, raising his average from .265 to .306.

Mariners at Astros projected starters

RHP Luis Castillo vs. RHP Mike Burrows

Castillo (0-4, 6.57 ERA) makes his ninth start of 2026, still looking to get his first win of the season. He has a 1.62 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 38 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H (2 HR), 0 BB, 6 K in 6-1 loss at Chicago White Sox Saturday
• 2026 away splits (4 starts): 0-3, 7.50 ERA (18 IP, 15 ER), 1.72 WHIP, 25 H (4 HR), 6 BB, 16 K (8.0 K/9)
• 2026 vs. Astros: 1 start, no-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 10 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 3 K in 8-7 home win April 11
• Career vs. Astros (regular season): 3-2, 3.90 ERA (60 IP, 26 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 5 HR, 8.1 K/9 in 10 starts

Burrows (2-4, 5.04 ERA) will also make his ninth start. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 44 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 10-0 victory at Cincinnati Reds Friday
• 2026 home splits (4 starts): 1-1, 5.75 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 22 H (4 HR), 10 BB, 27 K (12.0 K/9)
• 2026 vs. Mariners: Loss, 6 IP, 6 ER, 11 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 3 K in 6-2 road setback April 13
• Career vs. Mariners (2 starts): 0-1, 4.91 ERA (11 IP, 6 ER), 1.73 WHIP, 14 H (2 HR), 5 BB, 9 K (7.4 K/9)

Mariners at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mariners -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Astros +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+125) | Astros +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Mariners at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Mariners 3

Moneyline

The ASTROS (+110) are worth a look at plus-money. Houston finally solved Seattle Wednesday, snapping an 0-6 skid this season and an 0-9 slide in the series since last September. Look for Houston to split this 4-game series as Seattle's Castillo has been absolutely brutal in 2026.

Run line/Against the spread

Backing Astros +1.5 (-155) isn't priced out of line if you're a little on the conservative side, you don't want to bet Houston straight up (SU), and you'd like a little bit of insurance.

As it stands, Houston is still just 1-9 SU in the past 10 tries against Seattle, and just 3-10 in the past 13 overall games at home. But, again, Castillo has been awfully giving this season.

Just don't bet more than 1½ UNITS combined between the Astros ML and their RL.

Over/Under

UNDER 9 (-105) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.

The Under cashed in Wednesday's meeting, while going 2-1 in the first 3 games of this series. Plus, the Under is 4-1 in the past 5 games for the 'Stros.

The Under is also 4-1 in the M's last 5 games, while going 8-3 in the previous 11 outings, too.

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