Patriots 2026 schedule: Way-too-early record prediction, picks

In their first game of the 2026 NFL season, the New England Patriots will immediately face a harder test than they did for most of last year.

The 2025 Patriots boasted the NFL's easiest strength of schedule by a wide margin, with their opponents combining for a .391 winning percentage. To open the 2026 season, New England will travel to face the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks for a Super Bowl 60 rematch.

Things don't get much easier for the Patriots after that season-opening matchup. Based on their opponents' combined 2025 win percentage, their 2026 strength of schedule ranks sixth-hardest in the NFL.

Still, New England's roster features a quarterback who finished as the NFL MVP runner-up last year, a young core of position players on offense, and one of the league's best cornerbacks on defense. The Patriots, even with a tougher schedule in 2026, shouldn't expect their record to regress dramatically.

Here's how USA TODAY Sports evaluated the Patriots' 2026 schedule after the NFL draft and schedule release:

New England Patriots record prediction 2026

Record prediction: 11-6

These 2026 Patriots don't have the ridiculously easy strength of schedule that the 2025 iteration did, but they can still pencil in two to four wins against the seemingly less-than-competitive Dolphins and Jets. Adding in a split with the Bills gives New England three to five wins just from in-division games.

Finding six more wins on New England's schedule is an easier task than it may have been when their season ended after Super Bowl 60, thanks to some savvy offseason moves.

Wide receiver Romeo Doubs joins the receiving corps for Drake Maye, while offensive linemen Alijah Vera-Tucker, Caleb Lomu and Dametrious Crownover will keep the quarterback protected up front. Third-round rookie Eli Raridon provides Maye with an extra pass-catcher and blocker as well. Defensively, New England prioritized its pass rush with Dre'Mont Jones in free agency and Gabe Jacas in the draft.

Patriots game-by-game picks

• Week 1 at Seahawks (Season opener): LOSS
• Week 2 vs. Steelers: WIN
• Week 3 at Jaguars: LOSS
• Week 4 at Bills: LOSS
• Week 5 vs. Raiders: WIN
• Week 6 vs. Jets: WIN
• Week 7 at Bears ("Thursday Night Football"): LOSS
• Week 8 at Dolphins: WIN
• Week 9 vs. Packers: WIN
• Week 10 at Lions: WIN
• Week 11: BYE
• Week 12 at Chargers ("Sunday Night Football"): LOSS
• Week 13 vs. Bills: WIN
• Week 14 vs. Vikings ("Thursday Night Football"): WIN
• Week 15 at Chiefs ("Monday Night Football"): LOSS
• Week 16 at Jets: WIN
• Week 17 vs. Broncos: WIN
• Week 18 vs. Dolphins: WIN

Toughest game: Week 1 at Seahawks. A rematch against the team that put the Patriots in their place in Super Bowl 60 is the first test New England has to face in the 2026 regular season. That's a tough draw for a team that faced the easiest strength of schedule in the league last year.

Easiest game: Week 18 vs. Dolphins. On the other end of the spectrum (and the schedule), the Patriots close out their season against the team that is likely their weakest opponent. Miami is headed for a rebuilding season in 2026 after blowing up its roster in the offseason.

Must-watch matchup: Week 15 at Chiefs. Was 2025 a passing of the torch back to the Patriots for AFC dominance, or was it a one-year anomaly for Kansas City? Perhaps the Week 15 clash between the two teams that have ruled their conference for the last three decades will shed some light on the AFC's future.

Patriots schedule 2026

• Week 1 (Sept. 9): at Seattle Seahawks, 8:20 p.m., NBC (Season opener and Wednesday)
• Week 2 (Sept. 20): vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. and CBS
• Week 3 (Sept. 27): at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. and CBS
• Week 4 (Oct. 4): at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. and CBS
• Week 5 (Oct. 11): vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 1 p.m. and CBS
• Week 6 (Oct. 18): vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m. and CBS
• Week 7 (Oct. 22): at Chicago Bears, 8:15 p.m. and Amazon Prime ("Thursday Night Football")
• Week 8 (Nov. 1): at Miami Dolphins, 4:25 p.m. and CBS
• Week 9 (Nov. 8): vs. Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m. and Fox
• Week 10 (Nov. 15): at Detroit Lions, 9:30 a.m. and Fox (Munich)
• Week 11: BYE
• Week 12 (Nov. 29): at Los Angeles Chargers, 8:20 p.m. and NBC ("Sunday Night Football")
• Week 13 (Dec. 6): vs. Buffalo Bills, 4:25 p.m. and CBS
• Week 14 (Dec. 10): vs. Minnesota Vikings, 8:15 p.m. and Amazon Prime ("Thursday Night Football")
• Week 15 (Dec. 21): at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:15 p.m. and ESPN ("Monday Night Football")
• Week 16 (Dec. 27): at New York Jets, 1:00 p.m. and CBS
• Week 17: vs. Denver Broncos, TBD, TBD
• Week 18: vs. Miami Dolphins, TBD, TBD

Patriots home opponents 2026

• Buffalo Bills
• Miami Dolphins
• New York Jets
• Denver Broncos
• Green Bay Packers
• Las Vegas Raiders
• Minnesota Vikings
• Pittsburgh Steelers

Patriots away opponents 2026

• Buffalo Bills
• Miami Dolphins
• New York Jets
• Chicago Bears
• Detroit Lions
• Jacksonville Jaguars
• Kansas City Chiefs
• Los Angeles Chargers
• Seattle Seahawks

Super Bowl 61 odds