The Texans 2026 schedule is here. Way-too-early record prediction, picks

The Houston Texans have built one of the NFL's best defenses. Will it be enough to lead them to their first-ever Super Bowl appearance?

Houston's success may hinge on whether C.J. Stroud takes a big enough step forward in his quest to be the team's franchise quarterback.

Stroud has made the playoffs and won a game in each of his first three seasons, but he struggled down the stretch in 2025. That included a woeful playoff performance, during which he completed just 51.9% of his passes for 462 yards, two touchdowns and five interceptions with five fumbles across two games.

If Stroud can return to the form he showcased during his 2023 campaign when he was named the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year, then Houston could blossom into a true AFC contender.

If not, a lot of pressure will be on DeMeco Ryans' defense to continue playing at a high level as the Texans prepare for a difficult 2026 schedule.

How will the Texans do in 2026? Below is a record prediction for the team, along with game-by-game projections of how the team will fare.

Houston Texans record prediction 2026

Record prediction: 10-7

The Houston Texans went 12-5 and returned to the playoffs for the third consecutive season despite failing to win the AFC South. Stroud will look to bounce back after struggling in the postseason.

Nico Collins highlights his receiving weapons while second-year wideouts Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are expected to take on larger roles. Meanwhile, Tank Dell is expected to return after missing the 2025 season. Houston traded for veteran running back David Montgomery this offseason.

Head coach DeMeco Ryans has steered the NFL's top defense. A unit that was on a historic pace and has retained the majority of its starters, highlighted by Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre in the secondary, star pass rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., in addition to linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. Houston has the seventh-hardest strength-of-schedule, according to Sharp Football Analysis.

The Jaguars are expected to be among the AFC contenders but the Titans are still rebuilding and several question marks surround the Colts. They will face the AFC North and NFC East in non-divisional play. Outside of that, Houston plays fellow second-place finishers the Bills, Packers and Chargers. None of those will be easy contests, even with the latter two games being played at home. Still, with the league's best defense, the Texans should remain above. 500 with ease despite likely not besting their 12-5 season last year. Even if the defense takes a step back, the offense should take a step forward. -

Texans game-by-game picks

• Week 1: vs. Buffalo Bills – WIN
• Week 2: vs. Cincinnati Bengals – LOSS
• Week 3: at Indianapolis Colts – WIN
• Week 4: vs. Dallas Cowboys – WIN
• Week 5: at Tennessee Titans – WIN
• Week 6: at Jacksonville Jaguars (London) – LOSS
• Week 7: vs. New York Giants – WIN
• Week 8: BYE
• Week 9: at Los Angeles Chargers – LOSS
• Week 10: at Cleveland Browns – WIN
• Week 11: vs. Indianapolis Colts ("Thursday Night Football") – WIN
• Week 12: vs. Baltimore Ravens – WIN
• Week 13: at Pittsburgh Steelers ("Sunday Night Football") – LOSS
• Week 14: at Washington Commanders – LOSS
• Week 15: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – WIN
• Week 16: at Philadelphia Eagles ("Thursday Night Football") – LOSS
• Week 17: at Green Bay Packers ("Monday Night Football") – LOSS
• Week 18: vs. Tennessee Titans – WIN

Toughest game: Week 6 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville has been taking well to playing multiple games in London in recent seasons, and the games are always back-to-back. The Texans have the misfortune of facing the Jaguars on the latter end of the back-to-back, meaning they will have had extra time to adjust their body clocks. That will put Houston at a disadvantage in what is already projected to be a tight, divisional matchup.

Easiest game: Week 11 vs. Indianapolis Colts. There aren't a lot of easy-looking games on Houston's schedule, but they should be well-positioned to handle the Colts at home. Daniel Jones had a season-low 51.9% completion rate against the Texans last season, so Houston's elite defense should be able to keep Indianapolis' offense in check.

Must-watch matchup: Week 1 vs. Buffalo Bills. A case can be made that the Bills vs. Texans game is the best matchup of NFL Week 1. Houston's elite defense will get a massive early test against a high-flying, Josh Allen-led Buffalo offense in Joe Brady's first game as the team's head coach.

Texans schedule 2026

• Week 1 (Sept. 13): vs. Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. ET and CBS
• Week 2 (Sept. 20): vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET and CBS
• Week 3 (Sept. 27): at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. ET and CBS
• Week 4 (Oct. 4): vs. Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m. ET and Fox
• Week 5 (Oct. 11): at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. ET and CBS
• Week 6 (Oct. 18): at Jacksonville Jaguars, 9:30 a.m. ET and NFL Network (in London)
• Week 7 (Oct. 25): vs. New York Giants, 1 p.m. ET and Fox
• Week 8: BYE
• Week 9 (Nov. 8): at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m. ET and CBS
• Week 10 (Nov. 15): at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. ET and Fox
• Week 11 (Nov. 19): vs. Indianapolis Colts, 8:15 p.m. ET and Prime Video ("Thursday Night Football")
• Week 12 (Nov. 29): vs. Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. ET and CBS
• Week 13 (Dec. 6): at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:20 p.m. ET and NBC ("Sunday Night Football")
• Week 14 (Dec. 13): at Washington Commanders, 1 p.m. ET and CBS
• Week 15 (Dec. 20): vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET and CBS
• Week 16 (Dec. 24): at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:15 p.m. ET and Prime Video ("Thursday Night Football")
• Week 17 (Jan. 4): at Green Bay Packers, 8:15 p.m. ET and ESPN ("Monday Night Football")
• Week 18 (TBD): vs. Tennessee Titans and TBD

Texans home opponents 2026

• Indianapolis Colts
• Jacksonville Jaguars
• Tennessee Titans
• Baltimore Ravens
• Buffalo Bills
• Cincinnati Bengals
• Dallas Cowboys
• New York Giants

Texans away opponents 2026

• Indianapolis Colts
• Jacksonville Jaguars
• Tennessee Titans
• Cleveland Browns
• Green Bay Packers
• Los Angeles Chargers
• Philadelphia Eagles
• Pittsburgh Steelers
• Washington Commanders

Super Bowl 61 odds

USA TODAY Sports' Tom Viera also contributed to this report.