USA clinching scenarios: What USMNT needs to advance in World Cup

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SEATTLE — After a 4-1 win over Paraguay, the U.S. men's national team has put itself in great shape to qualify out of Group D of the 2026 World Cup.

The USMNT now turns to a massive match on Friday against Australia as it looks to make it two wins from two to start the World Cup.

The team's second match carries all kinds of implications for advancement through the group stage.

The basic math goes something like this: win and the USMNT is in the knockout round, potentially as the group winner depending on the result of Paraguay-Turkey later in the day.

If the U.S. beats Australia and Turkey loses or draws against Paraguay, then the U.S. will clinch Group D with a game to spare.

A draw against Australia would not clinch a spot in the round of 32, but it would put the U.S. very close to doing so.

A loss would be a major blow, but the U.S. would still have plenty of ways in which it could reach the knockouts heading into its final group match against Turkey on June 25.

World Cup tiebreakers

If two or more teams in the same group finish with equal points after the group stage, the following criteria will be used in sequence:

Step one

• Head-to-head result(s)
• Goal differential in head-to-head matches
• Goals scored in those same fixtures.

If no decision can be made through this procedure, the criteria below shall apply as follows to the two or more teams still equal on points:

Step two

• Goal differential in all group matches
• Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches
• Highest team conduct score (players and team officials) relating to the number of yellow and red cards obtained

If no decision can be made through the procedures of step one and two above, the following shall apply:

Step three

• The two or more teams still equal on points shall be ranked according to the most recent published edition of the FIFA World Ranking

USA World Cup schedule

• June 12: USA def. Paraguay, 4-1
• June 19: USA vs Australia, 3 p.m. ET, Lumen Field, Seattle, on FOX
• June 25: USA vs Turkey, 10 p.m. ET, Sofi Stadium, Inglewood, California, on FOX