New World Cup tiebreaker rules turn USA-Turkey into dead rubber

IRVINE, CA — If this were a previous World Cup, the U.S. men's national team match against Turkey on Thursday would still have something on the line.

The USMNT would still be the favorite to win Group D with six points and a +5 goal differential, giving it an advantage over Australia and Paraguay with three points each and a 0 and -2 goal differential, respectively. But the group would not be sealed.

For Turkey, which has no points, a third-place finish would have been possible under previous World Cup rules. Under the 2026 World Cup rules finishing third would give Turkey a shot to advance.

Instead, Turkey enters Thursday's game at SoFi Stadium having been eliminated from the World Cup already, guaranteed to finish fourth. The USMNT also has nothing to play for, having already been confirmed as Group D winner.

That is due to FIFA's new tiebreaker rules for this tournament. In the past, goal differential was the first tiebreaker. Now, it is down to head-to-head between the teams that are tied on points.

The USMNT has already beat Paraguay and Australia, meaning neither team could surpass the host country even if they equal it on points.

As a result, Australia and Paraguay will face off on Thursday with everything on the line. Meanwhile, the USMNT's match with Turkey will be a glorified friendly — though no World Cup game is ever truly without meaning.

"It's pretty American sports way of doing things and to be honest, I don't mind it," USMNT defender Max Arfsten said of the tiebreaker change.

"If you beat a team and you're tied (on points), then I feel like you should have the advantage. I understand traditionally it's different but for me, I don't mind."

To a certain extent, the change makes sense. If teams are tied on points, then why not give the advantage to the team that beat the other? If the two teams tied, of course, then goal differential comes back into play.

But there is also an argument to be made that goal differential is more indicative of a team's performance across all three group games, while head-to-head renders judgement on only one game.

Regardless, goal differential will be the first tiebreaker in another new innovation at this World Cup. With 32 teams advancing from the group phase, eight third-place teams will advance from the 12 groups. Among those teams, goal differential will be the first tiebreaker.

World Cup Group D standings

• United States 2-0-0 (+5) – 6 points
• Australia 1-0-1 (0) – 3 points
• Paraguay 1-0-1 (-2) – 3 points
• Turkey 0-0-2 (-3) – 0 points

Scenarios

• United States: Clinched Group D - shop knockout round tickets
• Australia: Will advance with a win or draw against Paraguay
• Paraguay: Will advance with a win against Australia