How El Niño could be good news for 2026 hurricane season

As the weather moves into spring, the Earth's atmosphere may be shifting as well.

The current La Niña climate pattern may be transitioning toward a strong El Niño pattern, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That may impact the number of hurricanes we can expect in the 2026 hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1. It may also bring strong heat waves, droughts and flooding.

El Niño frequently causes some of the hottest years ever recorded, such as the record-breaking worldwide average temperature in 2024. The likelihood of an El Niño forming in the late summer is currently estimated by NOAA to be between 50% to 60%, however those forecasts could be updated.

What is El Niño?

The climate phenomenon known as El Niño – or "little boy" in Spanish – refers to above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

El Niño typically brings wetter, cooler weather to the southern United States and warmer, drier winters to Canada and the northern United States. El Niño typically results in more rainfall along with some severe flooding.

Weather impacts include:

• Wetter than average conditions along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida.
• Increased chances of above-normal tornado activity in central and south Florida.
• Wetter than normal conditions in parts of California.
• Drier than normal conditions in the Ohio Valley, and potentially reduced precipitation in Washington state and Oregon during a period when the states typically receive much of their annual rain.

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How does El Niño influence hurricanes?

El Niño can have an huge impact on the severity of the Atlantic hurricane season.

"Typically, El Niño leads to more rising air over the tropical Pacific, which then leads to stronger upper-level wind shear and sinking air across the tropical Atlantic," said associate scientist Andy Hazelton of the University of Miami in an email to USA TODAY. "This usually reduces the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf."

However, he said we've seen El Niño years where the Atlantic was very warm, and that offset some of the El Niño effects. 2023 was a good example, he added.

The yin and yang of La Niña and El Niño

When surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean drop by roughly 0.9°F (0.5°C) over the span of three months, a La Niña occurs. The reverse – an El Niño – results from warmer-than-normal temperatures. The three-month rolling average temperature anomaly – difference from average – is shown in the chart below.

NOAA's latest odds are pretty aggressive for moving away from La Niña quickly, with a 60% chance of neutral conditions by the February-April average (so probably the next few weeks), said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach in an email to USA TODAY.

Contributing: Ramon Padilla, Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver/USA TODAY

Sources: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Colorado State University, University of Miami and USA TODAY research