A Super El Niño could bring a summer of "extremes." We explain
Whether it will be a “very strong” or even “super” El Niño remains to be seen, but the powerful Pacific Ocean pattern is expected to appear this summer.
The latest federal forecast gives the El Niño an 82% chance of emerging by July, according to a May 14 update from the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Many of the forecast models indicate this event could be “among the strongest El Niños in recent history,” said Zeke Hausfather, director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute and a research scientist with Berkeley Earth, on May 8. However, he and others say it’s too soon to know for certain just how strong this event will be.
AccuWeather has upped its odds for a “super” El Niño to 30% by the end of the Atlantic hurricane season in November.
Either way, this summer is likely to be remembered for weather extremes shaped by El Niño’s influence, said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert.
The El Niño pattern, part of a natural cycle that unfolds in the Pacific over a span of three to seven years, tends to elevate global temperatures and is considered one of the most influential climate patterns on Earth.
Here's what we know about the possible "super" El Niño:
Warming ocean waters
Atmospheric signs of El Niño include a weakened or even reversed trade winds, a reversal of Pacific pressure patterns, an eastward shift in rainfall and convection and changes in jet streams and global wind patterns – all of which together signal the ocean–atmosphere system has entered the El Niño phase, according to NOAA.
When sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific rise at least 0.5°C (0.9°F) above the long-term average, it begins to spur changes in atmospheric patterns, including shifts in winds, surface pressure and rainfall across the region.
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NOAA tracks sea surface temperatures using satellite instruments that measure the energy emitted from the ocean at different wavelengths. These satellite observations are combined with temperature data collected from ships and buoys, along with information from sea ice maps, through computer models.
Ocean temperatures around the world have been rising for decades; however, 2023–2024 saw unusual, prolonged and record-breaking increases in global sea surface temperatures, USA TODAY previously reported.
What is a 'super' El Niño?
The word "super" is often used when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rise to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above average for several months, even though NOAA does not officially define a “super” El Niño category.
This El Niño has an 82% chance of forming between May and July and is expected to last through the remainder of 2026, according to NOAA.
What are the characteristics of an El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average.
The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region.
Its name means the Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish. El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas.
Weather impacts of super El Niños
El Niño spurs a broad range of weather impacts across the globe, including in parts of the United States. While it can influence the number of hurricanes that form in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, it has even greater impacts on U.S. weather during the winter.
If it forms by the summer, “dangerous heat waves are likely in parts of the West and South, Pastelok said. "Storms and flash flooding may bring the biggest problems from the Plains to the Ohio Valley. Drought and wildfire risk will also be major concerns in the Northwest.”
If the strongest part of the El Niño doesn't arrive until the end of the year, it could still be strong enough to influence the hurricane seasons that start May 15 in the Eastern Pacific and June 1 in the Atlantic hurricane basin.
El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricanes by increasing wind shear that tends to tear developing storms apart. In the Pacific, the opposite happens, as the water warms and wind shear is reduced.
"Simply put, El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin," NOAA said in an online report.
Super El Niños don't often occur. Only four have occurred since 1950; the most recent one took place between 2015-2016, according to the Weather Channel.
Doyle Rice contributed to this report.