Who’s winning the midterms right now? What latest polls show about Congress

The fight for control of Congress is starting to take shape as a new wave of primary results across key states offers clues about who might win the House and Senate races in November. Here's what to know and the latest polls on who will win the 2026 midterm elections.

Control of the House and Senate hangs on just a handful of races as both parties enter the summer campaign sprint. New primary outcomes are already shifting the political map.

Across the country, voters in both parties have moved forward a mix of establishment and outsider candidates. Trump-backed Republicans have won several key races, particularly in Senate contests, but not across the board — raising questions about how those candidates will perform in competitive swing districts. At the same time, Democratic primaries in states like New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania have set up critical House matchups, especially in suburban districts that have determined control in recent elections.

Republicans currently maintain power in Washington with control over the executive office, both chambers of Congress, the majority of governorships and the conservative majority on the Supreme Court. This could change after the November midterms, when all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 39 governorships will be on the ballot.

Midterm elections, held halfway through a president’s four-year term, are often viewed as a referendum on both the White House and Congress.

At the same time, the national political picture remains unsettled.

This week's most recent YouGov poll shows only a narrow edge in the fight for Congress, underscoring how fluid the race still is:

• 38% of voters say they would back a Democrat in their district
• 35% say they would support a Republican
• 27% remain undecided, would choose another option or say they may not vote

That large share of undecided voters — combined with tighter margins than in recent cycles — reflects an electorate that is still up for grabs even as the general election campaign ramps up.

Turnout will likely decide the outcome.

Midterm elections historically see lower participation than presidential years, but enthusiasm — and which voters ultimately show up — can have an outsized impact. With control of Congress potentially hinging on just a handful of races, even small shifts in turnout could reshape the balance of power.

When are the midterms? 2026 Midterm elections

The midterm elections are Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026.

Who is winning the midterms? 2026 midterm election predictions

According to the latest RealClearPolling' generic Congressional voting polls, 47.9% said they'd vote Democrat and 43% said they'd vote Republican. This 4.9-point divide has gone down from a high of 8 points just a few weeks ago.

Who will control the House and Senate after the midterms? Election odds

In the Polymarket betting odds on who will win the 2026 midterms, 37% favor a balance of power with a Republican win for the Senate and Democratic win for the House. Currently, the Republican party controls both the Senate and the House.

• 81% favor a Democratic Party win for the House in midterms 2026
• 57% favor a Republican Party win for the Senate in midterms 2026
• 43% favor a Democratic sweep of the House and Senate in midterms 2026
• 19% favor a Republican sweep of the House and Senate in midterms 2026

The Kalshi market predictions on midterm election wins favor a Democratic sweep by 40% over a split congress with 38% odds.

• 79% favor a Democratic Party win for the House in midterms 2026
• 57% favor a Republican Party win for the Senate in the midterms 2026

Note: Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers reflect polling and odds as of noon Wednesday, June 24, 2026.

When is my primary election date? 2026 Primary elections dates by state

Primary elections are on different dates for most states, starting March 3 and running through Sept. 15. Here are the primary elections dates by state:

• Alabama May 19
• Alaska August 18
• Arizona July 21
• Arkansas March 3
• California June 2
• Colorado June 30
• Connecticut August 11
• Delaware September 15
• District of Columbia June 16
• Florida August 18
• Georgia May 19
• Guam August 1
• Hawaii August 8
• Idaho May 19
• Illinois March 17
• Indiana May 5
• Iowa June 2
• Kansas August 4
• Kentucky May 19
• Louisiana May 16
• Maine June 9
• Maryland June 23
• Massachusetts September 1
• Michigan August 4
• Minnesota August 11
• Mississippi March 10
• Missouri August 4
• Montana June 2
• Nebraska May 12
• Nevada June 9
• New Hampshire September 8
• New Jersey June 2
• New Mexico June 2
• New York June 23
• North Carolina March 3
• North Dakota June 9
• Ohio May 5
• Oklahoma June 16
• Oregon May 19
• Pennsylvania May 19
• Rhode Island September 8
• South Carolina June 9
• South Dakota June 2
• Tennessee August 6
• Texas March 3
• Utah June 23
• Vermont August 11
• Virgin Islands August 1
• Virginia August 4
• Washington August 4
• West Virginia May 12
• Wisconsin August 11
• Wyoming August 18

Maria Francis is a Pennsylvania-based journalist covering trending and breaking topics across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions for USA Today Network. Reach her at [email protected].