Hurricane forecasters to release first tropical outlook. What to know

The final countdown is quickly ticking away to the start of the 2026 hurricane seasons, in the Atlantic hurricane basin and in the Eastern Pacific.

On Friday, May 15, the National Hurricane Center begins issuing tropical outlooks for the Atlantic. May 15 is also the official beginning of the Eastern Pacific season.

The tropical outlooks for the Atlantic used to start on June 1, the first official day of the season, but in 2021 after several years with tropical activity in May, the center moved up the start date for the daily outlooks. The outlooks, published every six hours throughout the season, flag tropical waves or potential disturbances that the center is watching for potential development.

For millions who live in vulnerable regions around the United States, this year's tropical activity could be a good news/bad news scenario, thanks to a Pacific Ocean pattern that was a powerful influencer long before social media came along.

An El Niño is expected to form in the weeks ahead, with influences on the atmosphere that could suppress some of the hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and spawn a busier season in the Pacific. Forecasters are closely watching the model runs for the expected El Niño, which show a stark warming in the Pacific this summer.

However, meteorologists, emergency managers and hurricane survivors are reminding residents in hurricane-prone regions that it only takes one storm to ruin your year. They urge people to prepare the same every year, whether there could be five, 10 or even 15 hurricanes.

Even in seasons where the overall environment is not favorable, "you can still have pockets of days or weeks where conditions are favorable for storms to develop," said Michael Brennan, director of the hurricane center, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service. "Especially after a year like 2025 where we didn't have a big U.S. hurricane landfall for the first time in a decade, you don’t want people to sort of think that risk is decreased, because it certainly hasn’t."

What to know about the daily tropical forecasts that start May 15

Discussion - The hurricane center issues tropical discussions year-round to describe significant features and areas of disturbed weather. Its descriptions of what's happening in the atmosphere are useful for shipping and other marine traffic and for aviation forecasts. For a week or so now, they've made mention of tropical waves.

Outlook – The center begins issuing tropical outlooks every six hours on May 15 for the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific. Each discuss significant areas of disturbed weather and the potential for development over the next seven days, including the probability of tropical cyclone formation.

This year for the first time, to try to tamp down some of the speculation about activity they don't expect to materialize into an official storm, the center will use two colors on their graphic outlook maps. In addition to the lemon yellow blobs typically shown on the maps, they'll use a gray "x" to mark systems with little to no potential for development. Outlooks for the central North Pacific basin start June 1.

What's the prediction for the 2026 hurricane season?

The team at Colorado State University, where the late William Gray pioneered seasonal forecasting, has projected normal to slightly below normal activity with 13 tropical storms. Of those, the team calls for six hurricanes.

A typical season includes about 14 tropical storms and seven hurricanes.

NOAA's seasonal outlook will be announced on May 21.

How El Niño could affect hurricane season

An El Niño update is expected from NOAA on May 14, but even before it becomes official, research scientists say the pattern is looking more and more certain in the Pacific.

The atmospheric circulation in the tropics already appears to be showing signs of El Niño impacts and the pattern may already be influencing things, Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University, told USA TODAY on May 11.

"I think that we're already seeing El Nino's signals starting to imprint on the global tropical circulation, with likely increasing impacts as the El Nino intensifies over the next few months," Klotzbach said. That includes signals in the atmosphere near Indonesia and near the International Date Line, he said.

The long-range forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is predicting anomalies in upper-level easterly winds near the International Date Line, "a robust El Niño signal," Klotzbach said.

The circulation of enhanced easterly winds in the central/eastern tropical Pacific with enhanced westerlies across the Caribbean means increased convergence of upper level winds, he said. That brings a sinking motion of winds over the Atlantic, which tends to suppress the chances for tropical storm formation.

Pacific Ocean projections for 2026

An array of model images, including these from the North American multi-modal ensemble model, project water in the Pacific Ocean will be much warmer than normal by summer, as an El Niño strengthens. Warm water is one of the essential ingredients for tropical storm formation.

The average Pacific season includes 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or greater. The National Meteorological Service for Mexico issued a seasonal forecast at an April briefing that predicted 18 to 21 named storms, with nine to 11 hurricanes and four to five major hurricanes, according to Mexico News Daily.

Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert for AccuWeather, has said it could be "an unusually active and potentially impactful year in the Pacific basin."

AccuWeather's Pacific outlook was similar to that of the meteorological service, predicting up to 22 named storms, nine to 13 hurricanes and four to eight major hurricanes, with up to nine direct impacts to Mexico and Central America.

What types of tropical systems are there?

Among the terms we're likely to see in the tropical outlooks published by the hurricane center each day are the following:

Tropical wave – Describes low pressure areas that move across the Atlantic and Caribbean – above the surface and not in the ocean – that the hurricane center watches for potential signs of development into tropical disturbances, depressions or storms.

Disturbance – A cluster of storms with some organization, but no defined circulation.

"Invest" – A specific area designated by NOAA for investigation for signs of disturbed weather and potential development. Some of them move westward from Africa.

Depression – A system with sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Storm – An organized or organizing system with a warm central core, and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Don't dismiss tropical storms when you're in their forecast path. Slow-moving tropical storms can bring far more rain than many hurricanes and cause major flooding.

Hurricane - A system organized around a warm core, with sustained winds of 74 mph or more.

Cyclone / Typhoon - The same kind of system as a hurricane, but the term changes based on which ocean region the storm is in.

What are the three hurricane forecast basins for the US?

The U.S. has two hurricane centers responsible for forecasts products in three ocean basins. The Miami-based national center is responsible for the Atlantic basin and the Eastern North Pacific basin. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center, jointly located with the National Weather Service in Honolulu, issues products for the Central North Pacific Ocean.

Roughly, the boundaries for the three hurricane regions are:

Atlantic – The Atlantic Ocean and connected water bodies and adjacent land areas from the Equator northward, west of the Prime Meridian (0 longitude line) including the United States, Central America, northern South America and the Caribbean.

Eastern North Pacific Basin – From the Equator northward, east of 140°W longitude, including western coastal areas of Mexico, and Central and South America.

Central North Pacific Ocean – Areas north of the Equator between 140° West and 180°W, the International Date Line.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is the U.S. military's organization for tracking typhoons and cyclones globally.

Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about violent weather, climate change and other news. Reach her at [email protected] or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.