Texas GOP identity at core of Cornyn, Paxton, Hunt's 3-way Senate race

• Incumbent Texas Sen. John Cornyn faces a tough primary challenge from the right by Rep. Wesley Hunt and Attorney General Ken Paxton.
• Experts believe the race is likely headed for a May runoff, as no candidate is expected to secure over 50% of the vote.
• Former President Donald Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate in the race, a move that could significantly influence the outcome.

EL PASO, TEXAS − It's the old guard versus the insurgent right in Texas, where Senate Republicans are doing all they can to save incumbent John Cornyn's career and keep a reliably red state off the 2026 midterm election map.

Cornyn, 74, is considered an institution in Lone Star State politics, but he is being pummeled by two aggressive, populist-minded challengers in U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt and scandal-plagued state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has captured the Make America Great Again spirit.

For conservative voters, one issue seems to rise above the rest: ensuring Democrats don’t take control of the U.S. Senate.

"If you look at who’s running on the Democratic side, they’re definitely far-out liberals. I mean, extreme," Rick Bonart, a retired veterinarian from El Paso, told the USA TODAY Network.

Ed Solomon, 78, who runs a small firearm dealership out his El Paso home, agreed. He warned that if Democrats prevail this fall, then the United States could "be lost forever" and turn into a "third world country, because there would be no balance" politically.

Both conceded that Cornyn, who has been blasted by MAGA critics for being too cozy with Democrats and criticizing Trump in the past, would be the most likely to win in November. 

Paxton has too much "baggage," Solomon said, referring to bribery allegations and marital drama, and Hunt simply lacks the name recognition to pull out the win.

"We need to have him in there for a least one more (term)," he said. "He has the best voting record of 95%-plus voting for conservative issues. I think he’s done a very good job with that."

"About one-third of Texas Republican primary voters really don't like John Cornyn, and they never have or they at least haven't during the Trump era," said Mark Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University in Houston, about the four-term incumbent.

"If Ken Paxton wasn't so deeply flawed as a human being, if you had a credible MAGA candidate without the flaws, we really wouldn't be having this conversation because Cornyn would be dead in the water."

Most experts believe Texas Republican run-off is inevitable

Paxton has faced multiple controversies over the years in his political and personal life starting with a 2023 impeachment on bribery charges by the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives over allegations that he used his office to benefit a real estate developer who allegedly employed a woman with whom Paxton had an affair and helped remodel the attorney general's home.

The state Senate later acquitted him after a two-week trial.

The 63-year-old attorney general made headlines again last year when his wife, Angela Paxton, a state legislator, announced on X the two were getting a divorce based on "biblical grounds" after being married almost four decades.

"I believe marriage is a sacred covenant and I have earnestly pursued reconciliation," she said. "But in light of recent discoveries, I do not believe that it honors God or is loving to myself, my children, or Ken to remain in the marriage."

The Paxton campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

But those issues haven't stopped Paxton from gaining a slim polling lead in the March 3 contest, even as Cornyn and his allies have spent millions airing the attorney general's dirty laundry. A Real Clear Politics average of recent polls, for example, shows Paxton winning 30% of the vote, followed by Cornyn at 28% and Hunt at 20%.

Paxton has tried to overcome those scandals by emphasizing his lawsuits against the Biden administration and support for Trump. He also has showcased support from his daughter, who defended him in a Feb. 26 op-ed and appeared in a recent 30-second spot where she praised him as someone who "loves God" and his family.

If no candidate receives more than 50% support, the race would go to a May 26 runoff, which many experts and strategist expect.

Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak, a Cornyn campaign senior advisor, told USA TODAY that the senator "absolutely believes Ken Paxton is unfit for office," which largely explains why the Republican National Senatorial Committee has made the rare move of intervening in the primary against Paxton.

It it running a profanity-laced ad accusing Paxton of "sleeping around with a married mother of seven" and referring to him as a "wife-cheater and fraud" while championing Cornyn's record.

"He's lied to his staff, he's lied to taxpayers and he’s lied to his own family, all while enriching himself in public office," Mackowiak said. "We have a plan to win this election and we are executing it."

Hunt, who represents Houston's northwest suburbs in Congress, entered the race late and has stayed in third place in polls. But both Cornyn and Paxton have been ramping up spending against the congressman in the final stretch, signaling he is too close for comfort.

One Cornyn spot released in February, for instance, criticized Hunt for missing votes and supporting Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary.

Hunt is hoping to be an alternative choice for a younger generation of Texas Republicans wedded to Trump but who've lost faith in Cornyn and believe Paxton is too toxic.

He has mostly avoided taking direct swings at the attorney general, but in an interview with USA TODAY, the retired Apache helicopter pilot acknowledged it will be hard for voters to ignore Paxton's problems, such as being forced to return another lawyer's $1,000 pen that he plucked at a Texas courthouse in 2013.

"They are distractions, I'll say that," Hunt said. "They certainly are issues that can be used against him. This is why I'm running, because I'm a clean guy. I don't have any of those problems."

Other longtime Texas Republicans agreed that Paxton's scandals could be too much for more moderate voters to stomach in the general election, which will feature either Rep. Jasmine Crockett or state Rep. James Talarico on the Democratic side.

"If Paxton is our nominee, (Democrats) are going to go after him very hard on his personal issues," Ray Baca, former chair of the El Paso County Republican Party, said in an interview. "I think that will resonate with some of the middle voters."

What great conservative sin did Cornyn commit?

Democrats enjoy touting the idea that Paxton winning would put Texas in play as their own primary battle between Crockett and Talarico unfolds.

But more sober experts and analysts contend the real trouble with Cornyn losing the primary would be that it forces Senate Republicans to pour millions more into defending Texas instead of investing in defending Republican seats in swing states such as Maine and North Carolina, or trying to flip Democratic seats in Georgia and Michigan.

Hunt, a 44-year-old Iraq War veteran, told USA TODAY that Cornyn is in trouble because he was the lead GOP negotiator on a 2022 gun safety package supported by former President Joe Biden. He also said "Trump's time has passed" in the lead-up to the 2024 election.

"If you were in tune with the primary voter and what people want here in Texas ... you would know better," Hunt said. "That's a big no-no."

But Mackowiak told USA TODAY the senator is "widely considered the most effective" member of Congress' upper chamber who has supported Trump's agenda. He attributed the incumbent's troubles to a mountain of misinformation, saying they're focusing on educating voters about how he's led on conservative reforms such as border wall funding.

Mackowiak said there is "no question" Cornyn is the strongest GOP nominee at a time when Democrats are hoping to flip the Senate.

'He's risking' Texas: Trump hasn't endorsed − yet

Texas is considered by most to be a reliably red state that hasn't had a Democratic senator since 1988 or a governor from their party since 1995. Trump carried the state by roughly 16 percentage points in 2024, but Democrats regularly tout it as a potential upset.

Trump's voice still matters more than anyone else in terms of Republican primaries. But he still hasn't chosen a candidate in Texas.

"I'm giving it a very serious thought. You know, my problem is I'm friendly with all of them," Trump said during a Feb. 1 gaggle with reporters. "Those are the hard ones. I like all of them, all three. But you'll be seeing soon, OK? They say whoever I endorse wins, that's probably right."

Trump has endorsed 14 of the 17 Republicans senators up for election this year, but not Cornyn.

Hunt noted it isn't just Trump who has refused to throw his support behind Cornyn, but other major GOP figures such as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott haven't either.

"These are people that have known John Cornyn for decades, and they don't want to touch him with a 10-foot pole because he is considered to be a liability amongst the Republican primary in Texas," he said.

The congressman declined to comment on whether he's courted Trump for a nod, but added the president wants to "see how (we) do, and then ultimately earn the support."

Trump, meanwhile, returned to the road selling his economic agenda after his Feb. 24 State of the Union speech with Texas as his first stop. All three candidates reportedly attended the event but Cornyn noticeably hitched a ride with the president on Air Force One.

During the rally in Corpus Christi, Texas, the president once again complimented all three contenders. 

Asked at an earlier gaggle with reporters if he had decided on who to endorse Trump said: “Pretty much, yeah." Would he share? "No," the president said.

Jones, the Rice University professor, said Cornyn must win over Trump if he's going to survive. If that doesn't happen before the March 3 election, then the longtime senator and his allies will have to pivot ahead of the expected May 26 run-off.

"Cornyn needs to have a convincing case to bring to the president," Jones said. "And one element of that will be finishing as close as possible to Paxton, so that the daylight between them is limited as possible."

Cornyn has already telegraphed a more bruising battle with Paxton should they be the last two standing, telling Politico a "miserable experience" awaits the Texas attorney general after March 3.

A Republican operative close to the Cornyn campaign, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to speak freely, told USA TODAY that before the run-off GOP officials − top Senate leaders and former Trump campaign advisors − will likely lobby Trump on the senator's behalf with a message that, "now is the time Texas is put to bed for the sake of the Senate majority."

"He’s risking losing Texas," Republican Rep. Don Bacon, of Nebraska, told USA TODAY recently of Trump not backing Cornyn.

Adam Powell reports for the El Paso Times, part of the USA TODAY Network.

Contributing: Francesca Chambers, Zac Anderson