Emerson College releases poll for Texas Senate primaries. See results
The final Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey was released on Sunday, March 1, giving insight into marquee Texas races that will help kick off the busy 2026 midterm election cycle.
Both primary ballots feature races divided along lines of electability. For Democrats, the choice in an increasingly bitter showdown is between Texas State Rep. James Talarico, the national newcomer, and U.S. House Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a symbol of "resistance" style opposition to the Trump administration. On the Republican side of the ledger, the three-way race pits incumbent Sen. John Cornyn against populist-minded challengers in Rep. Wesley Hunt and Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The surveys of likely voters, conducted from Feb. 26 to Feb. 27, show a slim lead for Paxton over Cornyn, with Hunt's presence keeping any candidate from hitting the 50% mark. On the Democratic side, Talarico leads Crockett in a narrow contest.
Here's what to know about the Emerson College Polling results for the Texas Senate primaries.
What does the latest poll say about the Texas Democratic primary?
The final Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey shows Talarico with a slight edge over Crockett heading into the primary:
- James Talarico: 52%
- Jasmine Crockett: 47%
- Ahmad Hassan: 1%
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3% with a sample size of 850.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a release that the outcome could depend on whether the electorate is composed primarily of early or election day voters.
"Talarico holds a sizable advantage among voters who voted early, 58% to 41%, while Crockett leads the Election Day vote, 50% to 39%," Kimball said.
Emerson noted in the release that Talarico leads Crockett with White, Hispanic, and male voters, while Crockett is ahead with women and Black voters.
"Voters under 40 break for Talarico by ten points, 54% to 44%, while voters in their 40s to 60s are evenly split: 50% support Talarico and 49% Crockett," the survey noted. "Voters over 70 support Talarico 55% to 42%."
What does the latest poll say about the Texas Republican primary?
The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey shows Paxton with a slight lead heading into the primary, but short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. The results:
- Ken Paxton: 40%
- John Cornyn: 36%
- Wesley Hunt: 17%
- Someone else: 8%
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1% with a sample size of 547.
Cornyn leads among early voters, 38% to 34%, while Paxton holds a lead (44% to 32%) among likely Election Day voters, according to the survey.
"Senator Cornyn performs strongest among Republican Primary voters with college degrees, leading Paxton 43% to 32%, and voters over 70, 52% to 35%, while Paxton leads with voters under 50, 38% to 22%, and voters in their 50s and 60s, 44% to 30%," Kimball said.
According to the poll, Paxton leads among respondents who were 2024 Trump voters, leading Cornyn 46% to 33%, while the incumbent senator is performing "significantly better" among voters who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris or another candidate in 2024, winning 49% of that group compared to 8% for Paxton.